CoinShares: Bitcoin Quantum Vulnerability Not an Urgent Crisis, Risks Manageable

According to a CoinShares report, the potential emergence of practical quantum computers has sparked debate about the potential impact on Bitcoin's security. The Bitcoin quantum vulnerability is not an imminent crisis but a foreseeable engineering problem with ample time for adjustments.

From a technical perspective, the quantum risk primarily stems from the potential of Shor's algorithm to break ECDSA or Schnorr signatures, thereby exposing private keys. The main potential impact is on approximately 1.7 million bitcoins from early P2PK addresses, accounting for about 8% of the total supply, with limited possibility of causing systemic market disruption in the short term. Claims that 25% of the supply is at risk are considered significantly exaggerated, and the risk can be mitigated through address migration.

Long-term attacks are theoretically feasible within the next decade, but short-term attacks aiming to crack private keys within the 10-minute mempool window remain infeasible for decades to come. The potential volume of bitcoins entering the market due to private key leaks is estimated at around 10,000 BTC, posing limited impact on the price system. Holders can proactively migrate to secure addresses. The remaining targets are dispersed across approximately 34,000 addresses; even with a quantum breakthrough, a comprehensive attack could take decades to complete.