Analysis: This Cycle Exhibits Characteristics of a "Reverse Altcoin Season," with Structural Weakness and Widening Divergence

Odaily Analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on platform X, pointing out that this cycle may have exhibited a "reverse altcoin season" different from the traditional pattern. Historically, an altcoin season typically manifests as capital rotation flowing into altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, driving a broad-based rally. However, the current cycle has shown more characteristics of structural weakness and widening divergence among altcoins. A review of the cycle's trajectory shows that Bitcoin bottomed around $15,000 following the FTX incident in November 2022, subsequently initiating a bull market and reaching a high near $126,000 around October 2025. Yet, during this period, the market did not experience a typical, broad-based altcoin rally phase. Most altcoins exhibited features such as breaking long-term trend channels, losing key support levels, and expanding downside volatility. In this environment, market opportunities are more concentrated in structural divergence and two-way trading rather than one-sided upward trends. From a market structure perspective, the current phase more closely resembles a selective deleveraging and valuation normalization stage for altcoin assets, rather than a traditional, comprehensive altcoin bull market. In the short term, the market is likely to continue its divergent pattern, as structural downside risks have not yet been fully released.