Gate CBO: β Value Can Explain Bitcoin's Past Correlations, α Value Determines Bitcoin's Future

Odaily News: Gate CBO Kevin Lee released a specialized analysis in response to Ark Invest's Cathie Wood's core viewpoint that "Bitcoin's low β value combines offensive and defensive attributes." He pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term value is not related to the level of its β value; the core lies in its unique commercialization path and network effects.

Kevin Lee stated that Bitcoin's returns are not driven by a single risk factor but are jointly driven by structural factors such as network scale expansion, increased institutional participation, improvement of compliant infrastructure, and the implementation of on-chain applications. Its attributes dynamically shift with the market environment: during periods of macro shocks, it exhibits characteristics of a risk asset; during phases of technological iteration and increased adoption rates, Bitcoin releases non-systematic excess returns, i.e., α value.

He emphasized that β value and α value rely on linear regression models for calculation and are influenced by data intervals and statistical frequency, making it difficult to objectively define Bitcoin's true risk-return structure. The market can use models to explain its historical performance but cannot constrain Bitcoin's future. Currently, the Bitcoin network is still expanding, and its risk-return structure continues to evolve. This dynamic growth and uniqueness are precisely the core of its long-term allocation value, also validating the allocation logic that "proportionally including it in a portfolio can optimize the efficient frontier."