Wintermute: $85,000 Has Become a Key Resistance Level in Bitcoin's Downtrend

Odaily News On February 2nd, Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark. Wintermute had previously identified $85,000 as a key pivot point for market direction this quarter, but this level failed to provide support and instead became a ceiling for price declines. Bitcoin subsequently touched $75,700. Wintermute's analysis indicates that this drop marks the market's entry into a period of extreme fear, with sentiment dominated by deleveraging and the liquidation of high-beta speculative positions.

Wintermute believes the traditional four-year halving cycle has become ineffective amid institutionalization, with the crypto economic structure shifting towards a walled garden model where liquidity is concentrated in spot ETFs and large-cap assets backed by digital asset treasuries. The average duration of altcoin rallies has compressed from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days by early 2026. Wintermute lists three key variables for market recovery: the expansion of institutional mandates to include assets like Solana and XRP, sustained Bitcoin price increases generating a wealth effect, and the return of retail interest. Wintermute emphasizes that a true reversal may depend more on Federal Reserve policy than on crypto industry narratives.