"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Multiple Structural Factors Constrain ETH and BTC from Rising with Other Risk Assets

Odaily News Garret Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," published a lengthy analysis on the X platform regarding current market dynamics. He pointed out that multiple structural factors are constraining ETH and BTC from rising alongside other risk assets. The primary reasons are believed to be trading cycles, market microstructure, and market manipulation by certain exchanges, market makers, or speculative funds. Regarding the market backdrop, the deleveraging decline that began in October has caused severe losses for leveraged participants, particularly retail investors. From a time-cycle perspective, although BTC and ETH have underperformed over a three-year period, they have still outperformed most assets over a six-year cycle. Their short-term underperformance can be viewed as a mean reversion within a longer-term cycle. As long as BTC's "digital gold" narrative and ETH's core narrative as infrastructure for AI and RWA remain unrefuted, there is no fundamental basis for their long-term underperformance. Currently, BTC and ETH futures trading volumes are near historical lows, indicating that the deleveraging process is nearing its end. Labeling BTC and ETH as purely risk assets is one-sided; they also possess safe-haven attributes. The real reason for their underperformance lies within the crypto market itself: the market is in the late stage of a deleveraging cycle, and participants are highly sensitive to downside risks; the market is dominated by retail investors, with passive institutional participation; speculative funds exploit the high leverage of retail investors and the market microstructure, creating volatility through concentrated selling during periods of thin liquidity to trigger cascading liquidations.