Wintermute: Bitcoin Has Been Consolidating for About 60 Days, Persistent ETF Outflows Indicate US Selling Pressure Dominates

According to analysis by Wintermute, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways within the range of $85,000 to $94,000 for approximately 60 days. Selling pressure from the US market is becoming a key factor determining the short-term direction. Although Bitcoin briefly tested $97,000 in early January, it failed to gain sustained buying support, and the price subsequently retreated to the middle of the range.

Wintermute points out that market momentum is highly correlated with ETF fund flows: the rally in January coincided with net inflows into ETFs, while the recent pullback corresponds to record outflows from both BTC and ETH ETFs. Concurrently, the Coinbase premium has turned from positive to negative, indicating that US counterparties are in a state of net selling overall. Net inflows from institutional funds via channels such as ETFs and corporate treasuries have turned negative, putting pressure on the price.

The analysis suggests that for a decisive breakout from the current range, close attention must be paid to whether ETF fund flows and the Coinbase premium turn positive simultaneously. Until then, the support level around $85,000 should be closely monitored. This week's intensive macro events—including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, tech company earnings reports, and progress on tariff negotiations—could serve as potential catalysts to break the deadlock.