Coinbase and Glassnode: Bitcoin Entering a More Stable Phase, Leverage Risk Significantly Declines

Odaily News Coinbase's institutional research division and on-chain analytics firm Glassnode pointed out in their latest report, "Charting Crypto: Q1 2026," that Bitcoin is showing signs of a more stable and resilient market. The report suggests that the correction in Q4 2025 has largely cleared excess leverage from the market, reducing Bitcoin's sensitivity to cascading liquidations and enhancing its ability to withstand macro-level shocks.

The report states that the current market trend does not signal a return to a high-leverage speculative cycle. Instead, it is gradually exhibiting characteristics of a "macro-sensitive asset," with its price being more influenced by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing activities. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail momentum and high-leverage trading, the current market structure is more restrained, with institutional investors leaning towards defensive allocations.

Researchers noted that the crypto market is entering 2026 in a generally healthier state, with a relatively stable macro environment and monetary policy expectations that remain supportive. The report also mentioned that Coinbase's proprietary Global M2 Money Supply Index has historically led Bitcoin prices by approximately 110 days. This indicator continues to show a positive correlation in the current quarter, implying short-term support for Bitcoin, although the pace of subsequent liquidity growth may slow down.

Furthermore, the report indicates that Bitcoin options open interest has surpassed that of perpetual futures contracts. Investors are showing a greater preference for purchasing downside protection rather than continuing to add leverage for directional bets, reflecting a more cautious market risk appetite. (Decrypt)