Wintermute: ETF Funds Drive BTC to Break Through $95,000; Tariff Disturbance Triggers Pullback but Structure Remains Healthy

Odaily News On January 19th, driven by ETF inflows and softening inflation data, BTC briefly broke through the $95,000 resistance level that had held since last November, reaching a high near $98,000. However, following Trump's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries over the Greenland issue, macro risk sentiment intensified, causing BTC to quickly retreat to around $92,000. Within hours, approximately $8.5 billion in long positions were liquidated across the market, with BTC and ETH accounting for nearly half of that.

Analyzing the drivers of the rally, the market was primarily supported by three factors: First, a significant return of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a single-day net inflow of about $7.6 billion and a weekly total of around $14 billion. Second, inflation data continued to cool, with the US core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021. Third, a catch-up trade of BTC relative to hard assets like gold.

On the macro front, the tariff news reintroduced downward pressure. Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, with plans to increase it to 25% in June. The EU subsequently prepared countermeasures worth approximately €93 billion. Concurrently, tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer, putting overall pressure on risk assets.

In terms of regulation and institutional developments, several recent events continue to influence medium-term expectations:

The progress of the "CLARITY Act" has encountered setbacks due to disagreements between Coinbase and the White House over stablecoin yield provisions, weakening the near-term catalyst expectation for regulatory clarity.

Goldman Sachs confirmed it is actively researching tokenization and stablecoin-related technologies.

South Korea passed amendments to establish a legal foundation for tokenized securities.

The New York Stock Exchange confirmed it is exploring a 24/7 trading mechanism based on tokenization.

Regarding the market outlook, market maker Wintermute believes this breakout differs from previous rallies reliant on leverage, being driven more by real capital inflows. Although Monday's sharp decline was severe, leverage was quickly cleared, and the market did not experience a cascading downturn, indicating the overall structure remains relatively healthy. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether BTC can hold above $90,000 and whether ETF fund flows continue. If this level is lost, the trading range established since last November could re-emerge as a resistance zone.