Polymarket has determined that Trump's claims of fraudulent sales figures for the Trump Gold Card are false.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Trump stated at a press conference on December 19th that Trump Gold Card sales had reached $1.3 billion, claiming "sales are booming." Polymarket has determined that Trump's claimed sales figures for Trump Gold Card are "faked," but Polymarket still predicts an 88% probability that "Trump Gold Card sales this year will be zero."

The reason is that Polymarket added a note to the forecast stating that only data explicitly referring to final approvals and backed by completed payments counts. Trump's December 19 statement regarding gold card sales, and Howard Lutnick's claim that "$1.3 billion worth of cards have been sold in just a few days," do not themselves meet the standard of "final approvals and backed by completed payments."

The Trump Gold Card is an investment immigration program launched by the Trump administration that allows wealthy foreigners to obtain U.S. residency by paying a hefty fee (currently $1 million plus a $15,000 processing fee).