Matrixport: Bitcoin exhibits signs of a phase of adjustment during the Fed's wait-and-see approach and market pressure.

According to Matrixport's latest "Matrix on Target Weekly Report," the latest FOMC meeting results were largely in line with market expectations. However, the dot plot did not provide clear guidance on the future policy path, instead increasing market uncertainty about the pace of policy changes. Nevertheless, judging from interest rate and asset price performance, these uncertainties are still relatively limited in current price levels. Powell's cautious remarks, coupled with early signs of a weakening labor market, indicate that the current macroeconomic environment differs from that at the beginning of the year.

The report points out that against this backdrop, Bitcoin broke below a key long-term trend level for the first time in this bull market, and its price action bears similarities to the market rhythm before and after midterm elections in previous years. Although discussions about the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet expansion have intensified recently, overall liquidity in the crypto market remains tight, retail trading activity has not yet rebounded significantly, and the impact of political factors on market sentiment and trading behavior may not yet be fully priced in.

Matrixport believes that, due to a confluence of factors, the market is transitioning from a single-trend market to a more complex structure. During this phase, position management and risk control become significantly more important. The report maintains its previous assessment that even without defining the current market as a bear market, this consolidation phase is highly likely to continue.