Opinion: The Bitcoin market structure is increasingly resembling that of early 2022, and on-chain data suggests a potential deep correction.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin's price has fallen to near its "True Market Mean" and found support, currently at $81,500. This level is a dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market.

In its latest report, Glassnode stated that while prices are currently stabilizing above this threshold, the broader market structure is increasingly echoing the dynamics of the first quarter of 2022. At that time, after Bitcoin's price fell below this level, it dropped a further 61%, bottoming out at $15,500 in November of that year.

Furthermore, since mid-November, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 quantile of the "supply quantile cost base" (approximately $96,100), resulting in over 25% of the supply being in a loss-making state. Glassnode points out that unless the market can recover the 0.85 quantile (approximately $106,200) as support, the current structure remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.

According to CryptoQuant, its Bull Score Index has fallen sharply since August, dropping below 40 in October and stabilizing in November. The latest reading has fallen into the 0-20 range, indicating a deep bearish trend, similar to levels observed in January 2022.

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin recently encountered strong resistance near $93,000. If the price breaks below and closes below the lower boundary of the bear flag pattern at $91,000, the pattern will be confirmed, potentially triggering a new downtrend targeting $68,150, a total drop of approximately 27%. A break above $96,000 would invalidate the bearish pattern.