Wintermute: The macroeconomic backdrop remains positive, but BTC needs to regain momentum for the market to have a broad foundation for recovery.

According to a report released by Wintermute, Odaily Planet Daily, the market primarily digested the sharp adjustment in expectations for a December rate cut over the past week—the probability of a rate cut plummeted from 70% to 42% within a week, with the lack of macroeconomic data amplifying the volatility. Powell's ambiguous statements regarding a December rate cut forced the market to re-examine the disagreements among FOMC members, revealing that a consensus on rate cuts is far from being reached. Risk assets weakened in response, with the crypto market, a bellwether for sentiment, bearing the brunt.

Among cross-asset performance, digital assets continue to lag behind. This weakness is not a new phenomenon: crypto assets have consistently underperformed the stock market since early summer, partly due to their negative deviation relative to the stock market. What is unusual is that BTC and ETH have underperformed altcoins as a whole during this round of decline. This can be attributed to the fact that altcoins have been declining for some time, while niche sectors such as privacy coins and fee switches are still showing some resilience.

Part of the pressure stems from whale position adjustments. While there is a seasonal pattern to selling off holdings from the fourth quarter to January of the following year, this year it has clearly come earlier, as many traders anticipate that the four-year cycle theory suggests a period of stagnation next year. This consensus has become self-fulfilling: proactive risk management has exacerbated volatility. It should be clarified that this round of selling pressure is not supported by any fundamental deterioration; it is purely a macro-driven adjustment led by the United States.

Currently, the macroeconomic backdrop remains positive, with continued global easing, the US QT program nearing its end, active fiscal stimulus channels, and improved liquidity expected in Q1. The key signal missing from the market is the stabilization of leading assets—unless BTC returns to the upper limit of its trading range, market breadth will be limited, and the narrative will remain short-lived. The current macroeconomic environment does not conform to the characteristics of a prolonged bear market. With policy and interest rate expectations becoming the main catalysts, once leading assets regain momentum, the market will have a broad foundation for recovery.