Alliance DAO co-founder: The top of the 4-year crypto cycle is emerging; the US stock market AI bubble will dominate price movements.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that QwQiao, co-founder of Alliance DAO, recently wrote that although macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the rebuilding of the US Treasury's general account (TGA), and interest rate cuts point to a market rally, intuitively, it's all over. QwQiao describes crypto as a self-fulfilling asset class, emphasizing the inevitability of a four-year cycle prophecy, leaving the market at a frustrating crossroads. As a long-term optimist, he has been uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September and has observed that most savvy traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.

Turning to US stocks, QwQiao sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the sole driver of the market cycle, far outweighing liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, short sellers will be completely wrong. He compares NVIDIA (NVDA) to Bitcoin in the crypto world, pointing out that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, funds flow out of crypto and other assets, causing crypto to fall, and vice versa, creating a binary situation of AI stocks versus everything.

In specific sectors, QwQiao is optimistic about the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing it far surpasses the growth rate of AI startups. This is mainly due to the scarcity of competition in the stablecoin market, while the AI vertical is already crowded with more than 50 players. This year, his US stock investment returns have significantly exceeded those of crypto, and he has avoided high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, instead favoring high-quality companies at reasonable prices.