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Institution: U.S. Treasury bonds may be overbought
2025-10-22 13:52

Odaily Planet Daily reports that U.S. Treasury bonds have continued to rise over the past few days, pushing yields lower. John Silvia, CEO of Dynamic Economic Strategies, argues that this rally is overdone. Silvia analyzes the fundamentals of "expansionary fiscal policy and loose monetary policy," combined with stubborn inflationary pressures, and suggests that U.S. Treasury valuations are high. He is particularly concerned about the five-year Treasury yield, currently around 3.6%, slightly below the 3.7% five-year inflation expectation reported by the latest University of Michigan survey. Silvia argues that this comparison means that "even before accounting for taxes, the actual rate of return is negative." (Jinshi)