According to the latest data from Polymarket, as of today, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in contracts predicting whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October 2025 has risen to 91%, a record high. By comparison, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4%, the probability of no change is 7%, and the probability of a rate hike is less than 1%.

The total trading volume of this event has exceeded US$62 million, among which the "25bps interest rate cut" contract was the most active, with a trading volume of US$8,580,000.