Polymarket predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 81%.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, as of today, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in contracts related to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October 2025 has risen to 81%, a record high. By comparison, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4%, the probability of no change is 16%, and the probability of a rate hike is less than 1%.