According to Odaily Planet Daily, prediction market platform Polymarket indicates that the probability of a US government shutdown before October 1 has risen to 71%, a 17% increase from the previous week. The market has accumulated nearly $950,000 in trading volume. In related markets, the probability of a government shutdown throughout 2025 is priced at 82%.

Previous news pointed out that if the U.S. government shuts down, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will face a data gap .