The U.S. government said on Tuesday that the number of new jobs created in the 12 months to March may have fallen by 911,000 from its previous estimate. The revision suggests that job growth was already weakening before Trump imposed tariffs on imports.

Economists had previously estimated that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could lower its employment forecast for April 2024 to March 2025 by 400,000 to 1 million jobs. The employment forecast for April 2023 to March 2024 had already been revised down by 598,000 jobs. This benchmark revision comes on the heels of last Friday's report showing that job growth nearly stagnated in August and that June saw the first decline in jobs in four and a half years.

MyStonks Research Institute analysis suggests that the labor market, in addition to being impacted by trade policy uncertainty, is also under pressure from the White House's tightening immigration policies, limiting labor supply. Furthermore, the accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence and automation by businesses is also dampening demand for labor.

Most economists believe the downward revision to employment data will have limited impact on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to resume interest rate cuts in the early hours of Thursday, September 19th, Beijing time, after pausing its easing cycle in January due to tariff uncertainty.

MyStonks Research Institute will continue to pay attention to the CPI data released on September 11 to further analyze the Federal Reserve's policy path.