Odaily Planet Daily reported that the U.S. Treasury will initiate the Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment in the coming weeks, and plans to withdraw approximately $500 billion to $600 billion in liquidity from the market within two months.

Unlike previous rounds, this round of financing lacks a buffer: the Federal Reserve is still pumping money through quantitative tightening (QT), the reverse repurchase facility (RRP) is nearly exhausted, banks are constrained by capital rules and book losses, and overseas buying from China, Japan, and other countries has also significantly subsided. In other words, this round of financing will directly draw funds from market liquidity.

This shift is particularly sensitive to the crypto market. Historical data shows that during 2021, when liquidity was easing, stablecoin supply continued to expand alongside the recovery of TGA. However, in 2023, stablecoin supply shrank by over $5 billion, leading to a crypto market stagnation. The liquidity environment is expected to tighten even further in 2025. If stablecoin supply shrinks again, high-beta assets like ETH could face even greater declines relative to BTC unless they are hedged by ETFs or corporate inflows.

Analysts believe that in a weak liquidity cycle, position allocation among assets and fund rotation along the risk curve will become key market variables.