Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a key speech at the annual gathering in Wyoming on Friday evening Beijing time. Meanwhile, the latest higher-than-expected inflation data has prompted some traders to lower their expectations for a rate cut, while still maintaining their prediction of a rate cut next month.
Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in a research note, "As the market prepares for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the biggest risk facing U.S. Treasuries is that the Fed chairman may pour cold water on the widely expected September rate cut."
Currently, approximately 325,000 options positions (costing approximately $10 million) could potentially generate profits of up to $100 million if the Fed correctly predicts a 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting. Furthermore, current market pricing indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. (Jinshi)
