Odaily Planet Daily News Bitwise Chief Investment Officer wrote that the "four-year cycle" logic that shaped the history of the crypto market is being replaced by stronger, long-term structural forces. The main reasons are as follows:

1. The original cyclical driving factors are weakening:

The halving effect decreases every four years;

The current interest rate cycle is crypto-friendly and not as negative as in 2018 and 2022;

With the improvement of supervision and the participation of institutions, the risk of explosion has been significantly reduced;

The only new risk to be wary of comes from the rise of “financial companies”.

2. Larger structural forces are breaking away from the four-year rhythm:

ETF inflows will be a 5-10 year trend, starting in 2024;

Institutional adoption is still in its early stages, with pension funds and endowment funds just beginning to consider allocations;

The regulatory reform will start in January 2025 and will last for many years;

Wall Street was just beginning to invest heavily, and the passage of the Genius Act this month was a key turning point.

He concluded that long-term positives will overwhelm the old logic of the "four-year cycle", and 2026 is expected to be a "good year for crypto", but volatility will still exist, and the future is more likely to be "continued steady growth" rather than a "super cycle."