CITIC Securities: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year

Odaily News According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the Federal Reserve will maintain the policy interest rate unchanged at its June 2025 interest rate meeting, which is in line with market expectations. The dot plot shows that the central target interest rate this year is 3.9%, the same as the dot plot in March. It has again raised this year's inflation forecast and unemployment rate forecast, and lowered the economic growth forecast. Powell's speech was relatively bland, and his overall attitude was slightly hawkish. The key point of this meeting lies in the contradiction between the statement and the SEP and the divergence of the dot plot. In the face of uncertain tariff policies, the Federal Reserve has shifted overall towards controlling inflation risks. CITIC Securities still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year, or to cut interest rates again at the September interest rate meeting. (Jinshi)