Agency: The Fed's hawkish dot plot may surprise the market

Odaily News John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY Mellon, said no interest rate changes are expected at the upcoming Fed meeting, but the new Summary of Economic Projections could move the market. The dot plot will indicate that the rate cuts in 2025 will be smaller than previously expected. With markets expecting nearly two rate cuts this year, a more hawkish dot plot could disrupt markets. The Fed has become increasingly cautious about cutting rates in 2025, noting that inflation remains a top concern for most members who have shared their thoughts. Given the continued uncertainty about policy, the Fed is unlikely to soften its views on interest rates. After June, there are only four Fed meetings left this year, and it seems increasingly unlikely that there will be time for aggressive easing during the year. (Jinshi)