Viewpoint: If the Fed does not cut interest rates this year, the US Treasury bond 2Y will rise

Odaily News BNP Paribas analysts said in a report that if money markets exclude the Federal Reserve's expectations of rate cuts this year, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield is expected to rise in the coming months. "By September 2025, we expect the market to eliminate the two rate cuts originally expected this year and postpone them to 2026," the analysts said. This will cause the two-year Treasury yield to rise before falling back at the end of the year. Analysts expect the two-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.10% in the third quarter and fall back to 4.00% in the fourth quarter. They expect the Federal Reserve to implement four rate cuts in 2026. (Jinshi)