Bernstein: Bitcoin will hit new highs as companies increase holdings and ETF "supply crunch" intensifies

Odaily News This year, the Bitcoin price narrative has fluctuated between the correlations of "gold" and "Nasdaq", but Bernstein analysts believe that short-term correlations are highly misleading, and the exhaustion of retail selling, the wave of corporate holdings and the return of ETF funds are the key indicators, which may drive "supply tightening" to new highs.

Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial hoard of 42,000 BTC (about $4 billion), joining the competition of companies such as Strategy. Currently, about 80 companies hold a total of 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $3 billion last week, a five-month high, and total holdings accounted for 5.5% of the Bitcoin circulation. The proportion of institutions increased from 20% in September last year to 33%, of which 48% were held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation needs. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital has controlled 9% of the BTC supply. If the U.S. government implements strategic reserves, it may trigger sovereign countries to compete to hoard coins. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has dropped from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of about $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets in between. (The Block)