Odaily News Polymarket predicted that "TikTok will be banned in the United States before May 2025" and the result was "yes". This decision caused controversy among users, who accused Polymarket of manipulating the results. The transaction volume of this event reached 120 million US dollars.
On January 19, the ban took effect and TikTok displayed a message to users saying that the app would no longer be accessible.
However, just one day later, TikTok announced that it would retain access for another 75 days following the intervention of President Trump, who temporarily suspended the ban in order to negotiate a deal with ByteDance.
This caused confusion among Polymarket users, who believed TikTok had not been effectively banned because it was still available to most Americans.
Polymarket relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) to resolve its prediction market outcomes. The OO provides preliminary results for disputes, which can be escalated to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) if a dispute occurs.
In this case, the DVM process was bypassed and the market resolved directly to “yes,” leading to allegations of manipulation.
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced criticism. In May 2024, Polymarket users questioned UMA’s resolution on the Ethereum ETF prediction market.
In June 2024, amid outrage over Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in the Meme Coin market, Polymarket overturned UMA’s decision and refunded funds to users who objected to UMA’s ruling. (Cointelegraph)