QCP Capital: The stock market may face downside risks in the short term, and election-related news is expected to continue to drive the cryptocurrency market

Odaily News QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that China's stock market rebounded weakly after the long holiday, and the government's announcement failed to introduce new economic stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia Pacific stock index recorded its biggest drop in a month. US stocks also fell overnight, mainly affected by large technology stocks and geopolitical tensions, with the VIX index rising to 22 points. The volatility of the cryptocurrency market remains stable, with the recent implied volatility of 43%, 3 percentage points lower than the 7-day historical actual volatility. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Chinese investors may sell USDT to finance stock purchases since the end of September, while Bitcoin prices remain stable. As the rebound in China's stock market weakens, it is expected that funds may be reallocated to the cryptocurrency market, reflecting the growing maturity of the crypto industry as another risk asset. QCP believes that the stock market may face downside risks in the short term due to the upcoming earnings season and CPI data release, which may challenge its high valuations. Geopolitical tensions have further increased market uncertainty. QCP remains optimistic in the medium term and expects election-related news to continue to drive the cryptocurrency market. For example, Elon Musk’s recent comments about Polymarket, which predicted Trump’s lead over Harris more accurately than traditional polls, coincided with Bitcoin’s rise at the U.S. open.