Greeks.live: Most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market, and the current mainstream sentiment is to continue to wait and see

Odaily News Greeks.live macro researcher Adam YuX wrote that the US economic data in October was strong, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on November 8 have dropped significantly. According to the current 30-day federal funds futures price, the market's expected probability of a 25Bp rate cut next time is 85%, and the expected probability of no rate cut is 15%, which is significantly lower than last month. At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump's election as president has increased significantly in recent days, and the balance of the US election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump. Judging from the options data, the market's expectations for volatility in October are very low, and the at-the-money IV for the month is already below 45%, while the at-the-money IV due a week later on November 8 is 55%. This shows that most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market, and continuing to wait and see is the current mainstream sentiment.