Analysts: The market overreacted to Waller's speech, and there is still no clear evidence to support a 50 basis point rate cut

Odaily News Analyst Cameron Crise said that the much-anticipated Waller speech triggered market volatility, and one of the striking remarks was that he would support strong action/early rate cuts if necessary. But the market overlooked the role of "if" in the sentence. Waller spent a considerable amount of time in his speech explaining why he was quite optimistic about the prospects for continued economic expansion, why the Sam rule was only descriptive rather than predictive, and how the kind of shock that has not yet appeared usually triggers a recession. He actually hinted that more data was needed to determine the final extent and pace of easing, so from his point of view, policymakers clearly have not decided how aggressive it will be. Combining these remarks with Williams' earlier remarks, there is still no convincing evidence that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. It is also worth noting that Waller said that at a time when the Fed is implementing "a series of rate cuts," "I believe there is enough room to lower the policy rate and still maintain a certain degree of restriction to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the 2% target," which is reflected in the employment data. To some extent, the initial market reaction looks a bit overdone. (Jinshi)