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QCP Capital: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less frequently in 2024
2024-04-02 13:28
Odaily News from BlockBeats, on April 2, according to the latest analysis of QCP Macro Notes, the market began to reduce the number of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, and the current expectation dropped from 3 times to 2.75 times. The reasons include: first, both Powell and Waller said that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates; second, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) is above 50, indicating economic expansion, so there is no need to cut interest rates; third, energy prices are rising, and U.S. gasoline prices are close to Summer 2023 highs, rate cuts could pose risks. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were higher, while stock market trading was weak and Bitcoin came under pressure. If the Fed continues to lower expectations for interest rate cuts, asset prices may fully bear the impact of risk closure. However, QCP believes that despite this, Bitcoin is still a buying opportunity because first, long-term call option buying activity continues, showing structural bullish sentiment from December 2024 to March 2025; second, institutional participation Increased interest rates and rising demand for spot ETFs mean traditional finance may be just beginning to participate. Regarding how to buy Bitcoin at lows, QCP recommends using an accumulator strategy to buy Bitcoin spot over the next 12 weeks at a price of $55.5k (15.3% below the current price of $65,500) (accumulator cap is $70,000) .