本研报在回溯2019/2020/2024三轮降息期的基础上，结合最新就业与通胀数据、美元与黄金的价格信号，以及ETF申赎与稳定币供给等高频指标，提出“降息=条件触发而非单一催化”的核心判断。

过去两年，去中心化衍生品赛道迎来爆发式增长。随着CeFi的监管与信任危机不断显现，用户对于“高性能、透明、可验证”的链上衍生品平台需求快速上升。

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会释放明显鸽派信号，暗示9月大概率降息25个基点。市场对降息预期的概率一度升至91.1%，推动风险资产集体反弹。

在去中心化金融、跨链生态、资产代币化逐渐成为加密行业主要叙事的背景下，Chainlink的价值和战略地位日益突出。

2025年8月7日，美国正式签署行政令，允许401(k)退休计划投资包括加密资产在内的多元资产类别，这是自1974年《雇员退休收入保障法》（ERISA）以来最具结构性意义的制度升级。

在美联储加息周期接近尾声、美元霸权格局受冲击、跨境支付系统寻求效率变革的大背景下，稳定币作为“链上美元”的角色正在被广泛接受。

加密资产作为全球流动性与风险偏好的前沿反映，其价格走势、资金结构和资产权重正在被新的变量驱动。

In this trend, tokenized stocks, also known as "U.S. stocks on the chain," has become one of the most controversial and promising tracks.

The deep logic of this round of crypto cycle is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, stablecoins and on-chain financial infrastructure.

AI makes payment capable of “thinking”, and Crypto makes payment capable of “freedom”.

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, the macro situation has quietly changed. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the edge is now turning into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its two-year interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to the stimulus track, and global crypto regulation accelerating the construction of an "accommodative framework", the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

HTX looks forward to working closely with local communities and high-quality projects to build a more decentralized, transparent and inclusive digital future.

The future of InfoFi is not defined by a certain platform or track, but is jointly shaped by all creators, observers and identifiers of attention.

This article will start from five macro dimensions, combine on-chain data and financial models, systematically evaluate the opportunities and risks of the crypto market in the second half of the year, and put forward three types of core strategic recommendations.

In the future, with continuous technological breakthroughs and an increasingly improved ecosystem, DeFi is expected to achieve broader financial inclusion and value reshaping, becoming an important cornerstone of the digital economy.