SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240327): The first quarter is coming to an end, and the market has temporarily returned to calm

特邀专栏作者

2024-03-27 14:07 (UTC+8)

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While institutional investors are taking a break, retail investors’ share of options trading volume hit a record high, and this enthusiasm pushed the average daily options trading volume in February to an all-time high. In terms of cryptocurrencies, after last week’s continued selling pressure from GBTC, BTC has returned to the $70,000 range again.

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Markets remained very calm ahead of Fridays holiday, with global markets basically maintaining levels at the previous days level. U.S. Treasury and foreign exchange markets have been consolidating most of the time, and U.S. stocks were following a similar trend until a massive futures sell-off in late trading drove prices to lows. The first quarter of this year is coming to an end. It is expected that the trend in the next two days will be mainly driven by rebalancing activities. There will be no major data releases or important economic events in the rest of the week.

While institutional investors took a break, retail investors accounted for a record share of options trading volume, and this enthusiasm pushed average daily options trading volume in February to an all-time high. Former President Trumps SPAC has become the new favorite of retail investors inflows. The stock rose 16% after the first day of trading, and its valuation reached a staggering $8 billion. Who said that only cryptocurrency can enjoy the fun of meme-coin?

In terms of cryptocurrencies, after experiencing the pressure of GBTC’s continued selling last week, BTC has returned to the $70,000 range again. Fund outflows have slowed down and net inflows have returned to balance. March is still a very good month, with net inflows so far close to $3.9 billion.

Separately, regulators are once again in the news, with the CFTC filing a lawsuit against Kucoin, accusing them of illegally conducting over-the-counter commodity futures and margin trading and not registering as a regulated Swap Execution Facility (SEF). Interestingly, the CFTC refers to BTC/ETH and stablecoins as “commodities” in its official complaint, which is in sharp contrast to the SEC, which still insists that except for BTC, they are all “securities.”

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