Is ETH still worth looking forward to in 2026? — Year-end data analysis and summary (long article) At the request of many readers, I've compiled recent ETH data and summarized two key points that may be of interest: "Fundamental Analysis" and "Bottom Assessment." Today, I'll focus on the fundamentals, analyzing them from four different dimensions: on-chain behavior, token structure, whale holdings, and concentration. The conclusion is: the real problem for ETH right now isn't the high-level token distribution, but the dispersed structure at the bottom. $2700 is currently one of the few support levels with consensus; if it's breached, the price will enter a vacuum without a clear anchor. However, the major whale groups haven't given up, they've just become more cautious; token concentration is still rapidly increasing, indicating that tokens are being systematically consolidated. The general direction of capitalization and institutionalization is correct, but this path is destined to be difficult. Please see the following details: ------- Main Text------- 1. On-chain Behavior According to ETH-CBD data, a large amount of capital was established around $4500 around September 18th. This capital did not sell when ETH surged on December 6th, and subsequently, as ETH fell, these investors gradually sold at a loss. This resulted in a very even distribution of ETH holdings between $3300 and $4500, without any particularly concentrated divergence. In other words, there was no significant bottom-fishing activity at this price level. (Figure 1) It is worth noting that there are a large number of trapped positions around $3100, but tracking their behavior reveals that this is a group of whales who established positions between $2600 and $2700 from May to July this year and have continued to add to their positions, with an average cost of $3100 now. Therefore, logically, they are long-term funds and not sensitive to short-term prices. If the ETH price breaks upwards, the holdings around $3100 should not be a potential selling pressure; however, if the ETH price falls sharply, it is uncertain whether they will sell. Additionally, around November 23rd, large funds entered the market to buy at the bottom between $2700 and $2800, forming a dense red accumulation zone of tokens. So far, there are no signs of any selling. ----------------------------------- 2. Token Structure: The most concentrated area of ETH tokens is between $2700 and $3100, with 17.9 million ETH accumulated here, accounting for 22.6% of the total circulating supply, which is a very high percentage. The $2700 level is the highest in the current token structure, with 4.43 million ETH changing hands here; followed by 4.43 million ETH at $3100. Based on the above on-chain behavior analysis, we judge that the $3100 level is not a resistance level for a rebound, but $2700 should be an effective support level. The current ETH price is fluctuating within this range, precisely because some institutions have reached a "consensus" here (absorbing selling pressure). (Figure 2) However, those familiar with the BTC price structure should be able to see the hidden dangers in the ETH price structure: 🚩 The most obvious accumulation zone for ETH is in the $50-$396 range, with 9.83 million ETH, accounting for 12.4% of the total circulating supply. This means that the $396-$2700 range is a very wide open area with evenly distributed tokens, making it impossible to create a "double anchor structure." 🚩 This implies that if the price of ETH falls below $2700, it could potentially stabilize at any point within this large range. The closest such area is the $1800-$2600 gap, where the probability of a price drop is highest. 🚩 For ETH, the difficulty lies not in the number of trapped investors above, but in the large number of profitable tokens still remaining below (45.7 million ETH). There are nearly 10 million ETH in the $50-$396 range, but other price distributions are very scattered. This means we cannot determine where structural support will emerge below $2700; the unknown is the most frightening thing. ----------------------------------- 3. Whale Holdings Among the various on-chain whale groups holding more than 100,000 ETH, wallet groups are the "smartest" leaders in this cycle. For example, during the ETH price drop from $2700 to $1500 between February and April this year, this group was the absolute main force in increasing their holdings. (Figure 3) Subsequently, when ETH rebounded to $3500, they began to quickly reduce their holdings, with the selling range covering ETH's highest point from August to October. And during this wave of ETH's pullback to $2700 on November 21st, they began to increase their holdings again. Although they didn't go all in at the lowest point, nor did they sell everything at the highest point, it must be said that their timing was incredibly precise. We even have reason to suspect: is it just their good sense of timing, or are they actually controlling the pace? Recently, the group's accumulation rate has slowed, and the total holdings are significantly lower than the peak in April. Based on their behavior, I personally believe that the whale market's attitude is "long-term optimism, short-term caution." ----------------------------------- 4. Concentration: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was originally used to measure the degree of market monopoly. High HHI indicates oligopoly/monopoly; low HHI indicates full competition. In Glassnode's on-chain version, HHI does not refer to "exchange market share," but rather the concentration of ETH supply among physical entities. In simpler terms: is ETH more concentrated in the hands of a few large holders, or more dispersed among a large number of small addresses? (Figure 4) 🚩 First stage: Early 2016 - March 2023, a span of 7 years, with a long-term downward trend in HHI. Mechanisms including ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, airdrops, miners, and exchange liquidity all "distribute" ETH away from early core holders, leading to an increasing number of participants and a more dispersed ownership structure. This indicates that during this phase, ETH's price increase was driven by "new participants," not "ownership recovery." 🚩 Second Phase: March 2023 - December 2024. The HHI stopped declining, with extremely narrow fluctuations. Structurally, this means that those who wanted to sell had largely sold, but there hadn't been any systemic buyback of tokens. The price began to stabilize, without the dramatic ups and downs of the first phase. 🚩 Third Phase: End of 2024 to present. This is the most important and unusual segment in the entire chart; the HHI experienced a near parabolic rise, while the price plummeted rapidly during the same period, indicating that the dispersed tokens were panic-selling and flowing to more concentrated groups. In a tweet this March, I first used the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to analyze that ETH might be in a period of intense consolidation during a "change of ownership." The sharp rise in HHI indicates that a group of funds is continuously and systematically absorbing circulating ETH. After hitting $1500 in April, a strong rebound began, and this round of ETH's rise is "not dependent on retail investor diffusion," but rather "dependent on the concentration of tokens." From this, we can see that ETH seems to be replicating the path BTC has taken: "asset maturity → institutionalization → long-term pricing power transfer." ----------------------------------- In conclusion: Although the general direction is good, the process may be quite bumpy! If the Ethereum ecosystem does not generate enough consumption, then the total supply of ETH will have no upper limit, which will test whether Ethereum can create a new and larger narrative, using stronger consensus to lock in liquidity. After all, in terms of token structure, we see that there are still a large number of profit-taking positions below that have not been fully consumed. At several important points in this cycle, whenever the ETH price rises, large wallets realize huge profits. And relying solely on the current purchasing power of DAT and ETFs seems insufficient. So, for ordinary investors like us, at what price point does ETH offer higher cost-effectiveness and is it worthwhile to buy the dip? We'll continue in the next article! ----------------------------------- Bitget VIP: Lower rates, better benefits
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