SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240308): ETH is about to break through 4000, and a large number of call options have been bought recently

特邀专栏作者

2024-03-08 19:48 (UTC+8)

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In terms of digital currencies, BTC fluctuated slightly upward to $67,000, and the overall volatility level steepened downward; the price of ETH rose to nearly $4,000, the IV curve steepened, and the long-term volatility increased significantly. At the same time, the proportion of option trading volume relative to BTC increased. A large number of call options were bought at 15 MAR, expressing the confidence in breaking through the $4,000 mark in the short term and the prospect of upside space after the breakthrough.

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Yesterday (7 MAR), the European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged as scheduled, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth and CPI expectations for 2024. President Lagarde did not comment on discussing interest rate cuts at this meeting, but revealed some during the question and answer session. Dovish messages such as labor demand is slowing and inflation is expected to continue to trend downward in the coming months. In the United States, Powell also made dovish remarks such as fully aware of the risks of cutting interest rates too late, and is not far away from having confidence in cutting interest rates. U.S. bond yields collectively fell, with the two-year and ten-year rates currently at 4.492% respectively. /4.074%, the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the SP rising 1% to hit a new closing high.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Binance TradingView, Ethereum challenges the $4,000 mark all the way up

In terms of digital currency, BTC fluctuated slightly and rose to US$67,000, while the overall volatility level steepened and declined; the price of ETH rose close to US$4,000, the IV curve steepened, and the far-end volatility increased significantly. At the same time, the proportion of option trading volume relative to BTC increased. , a large number of call option purchases of 15 MAR were observed, expressing confidence in breaking through the $4,000 mark in the short term and the prospect of upside after the breakthrough; in addition, before todays delivery, 19,000 8 MAR 3,000 P were rolled to 29 MAR 3,600 P, continuing To provide protection for bulls, there is also the 3600 vs 4600 bullish Long Call Spread of 12500 ETH in a single APR at the end of April on 26 APR, which together form the most significant growth position of ETH OI in the past 24 hours.

Source: Deribit (as of 8 MAR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus, surface steepening

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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