SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240304): BTC surpasses 65K mark and hits ATH

特邀专栏作者

2024-03-04 19:12 (UTC+8)

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In terms of digital currency, BTC rose more than 4% during the day, and another wave of pull-ups before the options closed pushed the currency price to the 65K mark, challenging the All Time High.

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In terms of digital currency, BTC rose more than 4% during the day, and another wave of pull-ups before the options closed pushed the currency price to the 65K mark, challenging the All Time High.

The Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report last Friday, noting that the banking system is sound and resilient, but that there are still some weaknesses in financial stability. In addition, Fed officials are highly concerned about inflation risks, pending the release of more convincing assessment data. There is no rush to cut interest rates. In terms of data, the economic data released on Friday were generally lower than expected, enhancing market expectations for interest rate cuts. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, and U.S. bond yields gradually fell. The current two-year/ten-year period are 4.552%/4.204 respectively. .

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In terms of digital currency, BTC rose by more than 4% during the day. Another wave of pullbacks before the options closed pushed the price of the currency to the 65K mark, challenging the All Time High. The important catalyst for this round of rising prices is undoubtedly the capital inflow brought by BTC Spot ETFs. The average daily purchase demand of 10,000 BTC has far exceeded the output of BTC mining, not to mention the upcoming Bitcoin Halving which will once again reduce the number of Bitcoins by half. output, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.

Source: Binance & TradingView

If the currency price can continue its upward momentum, the moment of breaking through the historical high will not be far away. The options market also pushed the front-end implied volatility index to a peak of BTC 90% / ETH 85% during the day, while measuring the slope of the surface. The 25d RR indicator also rose again to break the highest point in the past three months. From a trading perspective, the bulk strategy represented by Long Call Spread/Call Butterfly has become a hot spot for trading, expressing a limited bullish view.

Source: Deribit (as of 4 MAR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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