Bitcoin oscillates and accumulates momentum as direction nears, HYPE restarts short-driven trend | Special Analysis

This week, Bitcoin continues its rebound above the $57,820 low, with the price approaching the key resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300. The battle between bulls and bears is entering a critical phase. If the rebound is rejected in this area, the daily-level correction could resume; if it breaks through effectively, the short-term structure will shift to a stronger bullish logic. HYPE continues its correction from the high of $72.97. This week, the focus is on the outcome of the battle in the $62 to $63.5 area. The medium-term view remains bearish, while short-term operations should strictly follow model signals, dynamically switching between Plan A and Plan B.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• Analysis of BTC's Multi-Timeframe Structure (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC Price Forecast and Medium & Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week (detailed in Part 2)
• Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Structure (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week (detailed in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• Verification of BTC Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's daily chart had entered a short-term consolidation phase. The subsequent market movement confirmed our forecast.
• BTC Short-Term Trading Results: Last week, we executed one short-term long trade (1x leverage), successfully realizing a profit of approximately 3.45%. (Detailed in Part 5)
• Verification of HYPE Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounded at the beginning of the week but failed to break the previous high of $72.97, it would indicate a reversal of the prior uptrend, likely leading to a daily-level correction from the $72.97 high. The market movement has been highly consistent with our assessment.

1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Multi-Timeframe Structure

1.1 Analysis of Bitcoin's Daily Structure: (Based on Analysis After May 6)Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

① As shown in Figure 1: The corrective trend initiated from the high of $82,850 on May 6 has formed a four-segment structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4).

② After hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1, the market is currently in the (3-4) rebound segment. The rebound peak has reached $65,600, approaching the key resistance at $65,700. Currently, this rebound segment may not be over, and the recent high of $65,600 is likely not the endpoint of segment 4.

③ If the (3-4) rebound segment shows clear signs of stalling and correction within the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, then the first daily-level rebound wave (wave a) starting from the July 1 low of $57,820 might be ending.

2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Structure: (Using the 4-hour chart)

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

① On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the July 1 low of $57,820 has clearly formed a seven-segment structure, from (44-45) to (50-51). Among these, segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment" consolidation zone (Zone E).

② Based on the current structure analysis, the price is currently in the (50-51) rebound segment.

• If the price effectively breaks the resistance at $65,700 and continues its rebound, the probability of this segment upgrading to a departure segment from the consolidation zone increases significantly. In this case, we need to compare its momentum with the entry segment (44-45) into the zone. If a momentum divergence forms between them when endpoint 51 concludes, the rebound starting from endpoint 44 (around $57,820) might end, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent correction.
• If the rebound fails to effectively break the resistance at $65,700, the probability of short-term range-bound trading remains high.

2. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View for the Week: Focus on the test result when the price rebounds to the key resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700 ~ $67,300 (Previous significant resistance area)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 ~ $71,000 (Previous significant resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $64,700 (Previous significant support level)
• Second Support Zone: $60,950 ~ $62,000 (Previous significant support zone)
• Third Support Level: Around $57,820 (Previous significant support level)

4. Operational Strategy for This Week (Excluding Black Swan Events)

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming the market structure has turned bearish-led.

• Maintain the current medium-term short position at around 20%.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and shows signs of stalling, combined with a top signal from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to up to 50%.

② Short-Term Strategy:

Utilize 30% of capital with a stop-loss, looking for "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use the 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating timeframe)

③ To dynamically respond to complex market developments in short-term trading, we have prepared two specific operational plans in advance: Plan A and Plan B.

Plan A: Tentative Shorting at Strong Resistance

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.
• Exit: When the price corrects to a key support level, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

Plan B: Light Long Position at Strong Support

• Entry: After the price rebounds to the $65,700 ~ $67,300 area and pulls back. If it stabilizes above the previous low of $57,820, showing signs of stopping the decline, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss level.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to a key resistance level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

3. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Structure

Figure 4: HYPE 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

1. As shown in Figure 4, the correction initiated by HYPE from the July 7 high of $72.97 (endpoint 61) can be subdivided into an eight-segment corrective structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Among these, segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" bearish consolidation zone (descending zone).

2. In last week's review, it was pointed out: When the market subsequently formed the (62-63) rebound segment, if endpoint 63 failed to break the previous high at endpoint 61 ($72.97), it would signify the end of the daily uptrend from endpoint 54 to endpoint 61, leading to a daily-level correction from endpoint 61. The market underwent the expected correction last week, falling from endpoint 63 to endpoint 68, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 16.17% during the period.

3. Based on the 4-hour chart analysis:

By comparing the momentum of the departure segment (67-68) of the bearish zone with its entry segment (61-62), it is evident that the downward momentum of the departure segment is significantly stronger. This suggests that endpoint 68 ($58.16) has a lower probability of being the low of this round of correction. The market is currently in the (68-69) rebound segment, and the price may subsequently see a new correction low.

4. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: (07.20 ~ 07.26)

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $62 ~ $63.5
• Second Resistance Level: $68 ~ $69.5
• Third Resistance Level: Around $72.97

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $58.16
• Second Support Zone: $52 ~ $55

Core View on HYPE for this week: Focus on the test result of this rebound when it reaches the $62 ~ $63.5 area.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

If the price rebounds to around $62 ~ $63.5 or a higher resistance area and emits a clear correction signal, we suggest investors consider entering a small short position (trial short). Strict stop-loss discipline is required, with the position size controlled within 30%.

5. Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Review

Strictly following our operational plan and trading signals generated by our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term (long) trade last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 3.45%.

1. Short-Term Trading Record: (See Table 1)

Detailed Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trading: (Leverage 1x)

Table 1

2. Short-Term Trading Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy:

a. When the price corrected to above $61,000, a stabilization signal appeared. The candlestick pattern formed a "bottoming" structure.

b. The "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a bullish momentum divergence signal.

c. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (white dot + red dot), the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart broke above the horizon line (magenta), emitting a bottom-reversal signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% long position at $62,376.

Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded to around $65,700, a stalling signal appeared. The candlestick pattern formed a "topping" structure.

b. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive top warning signals (white dot + green dot), the signal band (blue) in the chart broke below the skyline (green), forming a top resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we fully closed the position around $64,530.

Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 3.45%.

3. Short-Term Trading Illustration

Figure 5: BTC 30-Minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Reminders:

1. Upon Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.
2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When Profit Reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every subsequent 1% gain in price, move the stop-loss level by 1% accordingly to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets are highly dynamic; all market analysis and trading strategies require real-time adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. The market carries risks; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.