SpaceX跌破135美元發行價，底部的時刻到了嗎？

The halo of SpaceX's stock price is fading in a rather brutal fashion.

After the US stock market closed yesterday, its share price settled at $131. For a target that had its IPO price set at $135 and was once pedestaled by the market on its listing day, this figure signifies that a landmark psychological threshold has officially been breached.

What's worse, the price continues to decline in after-hours trading. As of the time of writing, the after-hours share price has dropped to around $126.

A month ago, SpaceX landed on the Nasdaq with a valuation of approximately $2.5 trillion, carrying the grand narrative of being the "starting point for human interstellar civilization." Back then, the $135 IPO price was fiercely sought after, with the price briefly surging above $200. Now, it has fallen nearly 40% from its peak, and market sentiment has done a complete 180-degree turn.

With $135 breached, voices calling to "buy the dip" are starting to emerge on social media. But is $135 really the bottom?

1. $135 Is Just the Underwriters' Price, Not the Market's Value Floor

Many investors view the $135 IPO price as some sort of "official guaranteed floor" — believing that a drop below this price means it's a "bargain." This is a common psychological bias.

The IPO price is a number negotiated between the underwriters and the issuer. It reflects the supply-demand balance and fundraising needs in the primary market, not the market's consensus on the intrinsic value of the company in the secondary market. Underwriters like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley consider factors such as market sentiment, order book enthusiasm, and fundraising scale when pricing, but they do not strictly adhere to the fair value given by a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model.

If we use traditional valuation tools to evaluate SpaceX, the resulting numbers will sober you up quickly. According to public information, SpaceX's revenue in 2025 was approximately $18.7 billion. Placing this into a DCF valuation framework yields a fair value of around $50 to $60 per share.

In other words, the $135 IPO price itself already includes a significant amount of "narrative premium" — the vision of future Mars colonization, the monopoly imagination for Starlink, and faith in Musk's personal execution. How much are these narratives worth? Nobody knows. But one thing is certain: these are not numbers that can be calculated by DCF.

$135 is not the bottom. It is merely a starting point, one filled with emotional bubbles.

2. Headwinds from Both Sentiment and Fundamentals

Recently, SpaceX has faced a dense cluster of negative catalysts.

The first blow came from China's aerospace sector. Not long ago, China successfully achieved a rocket landing recovery. This means the "reusable rocket" technology is no longer SpaceX's exclusive moat. When competitors begin to catch up or even approach the leading edge of core technologies, the "technological exclusivity" narrative propping up SpaceX's sky-high valuation inevitably shows cracks.

The second blow came from a launch failure. Just today, SpaceX's latest rocket launch mission was forcibly aborted during the final stage of the countdown due to some engines failing to start normally. Although this failure resulted in no casualties or equipment damage, it serves as another reminder to the market: space launches remain a high-risk industry, and any technical glitch can directly translate into delayed commercial orders and reputational damage. Following this news, selling pressure in after-hours trading intensified.

A challenged technological position combined with trust concerns triggered by a launch failure — these two factors together are sufficient to make any rational investor reassess the risk-reward ratio of their holdings.

3. 5% Free Float + August Lockup Expiry: A Sword of Damocles

Beyond valuation and sentiment, SpaceX's capital structure itself harbors significant risks.

Currently, SpaceX's free float represents only about 5% of the total shares. This extremely low number means the quantity of tradable shares on the market is very limited. In the early stages of listing, this low liquidity was amplified by sentiment and bullish momentum into a surge catalyst — a small amount of buying could drive the price up. But now that the trend has reversed, the same low liquidity will amplify the speed of the decline — a small amount of selling could smash the price down.

And a more severe test lies ahead: after the company's Q2 earnings report is released in early August, the first lock-up period is set to expire.

This means a large number of early private shareholders — whose holding costs are far below $135 — will gain the eligibility to sell their shares on the open market for the first time. Think about it: if you are an investor who bought SpaceX shares during private placements at $50 or even lower, the current price of around $130 represents over a 160% paper gain for you. Once the lock-up window opens, what is your first impulse?

Of course, it would be to cash out.

Buying SpaceX shares directly before the lock-up expiry is like voluntarily standing in front of a supply shock, ready to catch the chips being thrown away by those eager to exit. This resembles catching a falling knife rather than investing.

4. What If You're Already Stuck with Losses?

Having discussed so many risks, the question is: what if you have already bought SpaceX shares, are now facing unrealized losses, don't want to cut your losses, but need a way to balance the risk?

The answer is: yes, you can. If you hold SpaceX shares but expect further downside in the short term — especially considering the supply shock from the August lock-up expiry — you can short an equivalent number of SpaceX shares using BIT's securities lending feature.

• If the stock falls, the short position via securities lending profits, hedging the paper losses on the stock.
• If the stock rises, the short position incurs a loss, but the profit from the stock covers it.
• As of July 31st, BIT's securities lending has a limited-time $0 fee, making the cost of shorting extremely low.

This is a "market-neutral" hedging strategy: you aren't betting on direction, just on volatility. Use securities lending to lock in downside risk during the high-uncertainty window before the lock-up expiry.

Additionally, BIT will soon launch a US stock options feature. At that time, you can buy put options on SpaceX to purchase a form of "downside insurance" for your stock holdings.

• Spend a premium to buy a put option with a strike price of $125 or lower
• If SpaceX's stock plummets to $110 or lower after earnings or the lock-up expiry, the put option will appreciate significantly, with the profit covering or even exceeding the loss on the stock
• If SpaceX's stock rebounds, you let the option expire, with the maximum loss being just that premium — compared to the stock's volatility, this "insurance cost" is manageable.

Compared to securities lending, the advantage of options is that the loss is strictly capped. As an option buyer, you won't face liquidation or margin calls; the maximum risk is clear at a glance.

5. Final Thoughts

SpaceX falling below $135 is not a signal to buy the dip, but a reminder: **Valuations driven by emotion and narrative will eventually return to the gravitational field of fundamentals.**

$135 may not be the bottom, and $126 might not be either. Against the structural backdrop of a 5% free float, the August lock-up expiry, and a DCF fair value far below the current stock price, any rush to "buy the dip" carries extremely high risk.

For investors who already hold the stock, the rational choice is not to hold on stubbornly, but to use tools to manage risk. BIT Broker's securities lending function and its upcoming options feature happen to offer two different hedging paths — securities lending suits traders who want to flexibly adjust their exposure, while options suit conservative investors who want to cap their losses.

In the story of space travel, the most dangerous phase often occurs during re-entry into the atmosphere.

Risk Disclaimer: The market commentary, valuation estimates, and product descriptions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. US stocks and their derivatives trading involve market volatility, leverage, and liquidity risks. Short selling via securities lending carries the risk of unlimited losses. Options trading carries the risk of total loss of premium. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance and consult a professional financial advisor when necessary.