World Cup upsets keep coming, and the "dumb money" in prediction markets is hilarious to watch
- Key Takeaway: Through multiple upset cases in the World Cup prediction market, this article reveals the high degree of uncertainty in matches between strong and weak teams. It points out that while strategic adjustments by "dumb money" or "fading addresses" (shifting from betting on underdog upsets to backing favorites to win) can yield profits, the overall market remains highly random and past experiences cannot be simply replicated.
- Key Elements:
- Spain held 0-0 by Cape Verde: Whale @betoor619 placed a $1 million bet on Spain, expecting an $85,000 profit, but ultimately lost the entire amount due to goalkeeper Vozinha's 7 saves. The upset draw marked the start of the World Cup.
- Portugal held 1-1 by DR Congo: Ronaldo had zero shots on target, and DR Congo secured a late equalizer through a counter-attack. In the prediction market, some "smart money" spent over $243,000 backing Portugal to win, only to incur a loss.
- Cape Verde again draws with Saudi Arabia: Fading address @Zzzz87, who bet on Cape Verde based on their previous performance, lost $80,000. This address had accumulated a total loss of $620,000 with a win rate of less than 40%.
- "Fading" strategy turns profitable: During the knockout stage, @Zzzz87 switched to betting on favorites and made approximately $269,000 in the past week, covering a loss of $255,000 from the previous month. However, subsequent bets remain uncertain.
- Core Conclusion: Football prediction outcomes cannot be easily replicated (e.g., Cape Verde's case). Whether following smart money or fading addresses, dynamic adjustments are required. The only certainty in the market is that results are unpredictable.
Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )
The World Cup, 20 days in.
Prediction market trading volume continues to climb, with massive wins and losses unfolding in turn. Previously, Odaily Planet Daily reviewed the "massive profits & heavy losses" cases after the World Cup kicked off, and also detailed strategies and tools for following smart money.
Today, besides laughing at "big dumb money," we want to discuss whether classic loss cases have any contrarian reference value.
Spain vs. Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper Makes 7 Stunning Saves; Whale Loses $1 Million Trying to Earn $85,000
The 40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper, Vozinha, watched the opponents on the pitch, panting, his body slightly hunched, ready to save any incoming shot.
For this goalkeeper, valued at only €50,000, many did not rate him or the island nation of Cape Verde highly before the match. After all, their opponents were the top World Cup powerhouse – Spain. Their star player, Lamine Yamal, alone is worth €200 million, ranking first among World Cup player valuations and 4,000 times Vozinha's value. Spain's total squad value is a staggering €1.2 billion, making them pre-tournament favorites. La Liga boasts giants like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, with countless homegrown stars.
But football is not merely a game of comparing squad values; it is a sport decided by live performance.
For the Cape Verde national team players, simply standing on the World Cup stage, enjoying the joy of football and the adrenaline rush of competition, is enough. (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: According to commentator Guan Zeyuan, as an Atlantic island nation, Cape Verde has a total land area of about 4,000 square kilometers. They hold island-wide football tournaments to determine the winning team from each island, eventually selecting the squad for the World Cup, somewhat similar to domestic regional events like "Village BA" or "Jiangsu Super League.")
During the match, Spain unleashed 27 shots, 7 on target, but ultimately, all attacks were successfully thwarted by Vozinha and his teammates. As the referee's final whistle blew, the scoreline read "0-0", a shocking result that left many prediction market players completely wiped out.
Before the match, @betoor619 invested $1 million buying the "Spain beats Cape Verde" outcome at 92 cents, seen by many as a "risk-free arbitrage opportunity in the prediction market." Many even thought the match would be a "one-sided massacre ending with a big scoreline."
But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, refused to accept this outcome. Their coordination was tight, their defense compact, their tackling aggressive, and their counter-attacking strategy was executed exceptionally well.
In the end, @betoor619 did not earn the desired $85,000 from the "sure thing," but instead lost his entire $1 million principal.
This match might have marked the beginning of frequent upsets in this World Cup, where strong teams were held to draws by weaker ones. Subsequently, several title contenders were forced into draws by lesser-known or weaker teams in the group stage, making betting on a draw the optimal choice in the prediction market.
Recommended reading: "Whether you know football or not, betting on a draw is the best World Cup strategy?"
Portugal vs. DR Congo Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo's Glory Fades; Smart Money Loses Over $240,000 as a Lesson
On June 18, in World Cup Group K, the highly-fancied strong team Portugal faced DR Congo, a team making its World Cup debut.
According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, the Portuguese men's team ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands, with relatively outstanding overall strength. The presence of Cristiano Ronaldo, with his "5 Champions League titles, 5 Ballon d'Ors, 6 World Cup appearances, and all-time top scorer" resume, boosted fan confidence in Portugal's performance. Many expected Ronaldo to score in this match, thereby becoming the "first player to score in six consecutive World Cups," edging out Messi.
On the other hand, DR Congo was ranked only 45th in the FIFA World Rankings. This appearance marked DR Congo's return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.
In terms of player value, Portugal's total squad value exceeded €1 billion, including 2 "€100 million players" and 8 top-tier players valued at over €40 million. DR Congo's total squad value was around €150 million, just one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo expressed their hope to "rewrite humiliating history, at least making it to the knockout stage and into the Round of 32."
Back to the game, Ronaldo was named in Portugal's starting lineup. However, he managed 0 shots on target from 3 attempts; Portugal as a whole had 1 shot on target from 7 attempts, clearly lacking attacking firepower.
Despite 19-year-old João Neves scoring a lightning-fast goal for Portugal within 7 minutes, DR Congo equalized deep into first-half stoppage time, a period when Portugal was most likely to let their guard down.
Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's defense and counter-attacks were excellent, with tight man-marking. Their three center-backs, averaging over 185cm in height, further limited Ronaldo's impact, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, ultimately preventing them from securing an opening win.
In the prediction market, a "smart money" address, which had a 49% win rate before the match, spent over $243,000 predicting a "Portugal win," entering at an average price of 76 cents, only to end with a loss.
In the just-concluded knockout match between England and DR Congo, DR Congo initially took the lead with a counter-attacking goal. England eventually narrowly won 2-1 thanks to Harry Kane's brace, narrowly avoiding a second upset scenario where a weak team draws or even beats a strong team.
Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde Draw: Dumb Money Bets on Cape Verde Win, Loses $80,000
In World Cup prediction markets, whenever you try to apply the lessons from the previous match, the trend reverses.
In earlier group matches, Cape Verde, relying on goalkeeper Vozinha and the team's strict execution of counter-attacking strategies, overcame opponents and subsequently held Uruguay to another draw.
Given this, the "smart money" in the prediction market boldly predicted a Cape Verde victory before their match against Saudi Arabia.
However, in the end, Cape Verde once again relied on their extremely resilient defensive style and the team's unified execution to hold Saudi Arabia to a "0-0" draw.
According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, the top World Cup contrarian address, @Zzzz87, made another wrong prediction, losing another $80,000 on a Cape Verde win bet. Since the start of the World Cup, this address had previously lost $620,000, with its win rate dropping below 40%, and larger positions typically correlating with lower win rates.
In the past week, @Zzzz87 learned from his losses and changed his strategy, no longer stubbornly betting on weak teams pulling off upsets, but instead switched to betting on strong teams to win outright. Sure enough, as the knockout stage began, instances of strong teams being overthrown decreased. @Zzzz87's "bet on the strong" strategy quickly paid off, with profit margins ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.
Therefore, although this address suffered losses of around $255,000 in the past month, its profits over the past week reached approximately $269,000.
Currently, this address holds positions in several prediction events, including "Switzerland vs. Algeria," "Spain vs. Austria," "Portugal vs. Croatia," and "Argentina vs. Cape Verde," with bet amounts ranging from a few thousand dollars to $36,000. The outcomes will be known tomorrow.
Football is Round; Anything is Possible
After looking at numerous cases, will the former "dumb contrarian" learn from his mistakes and transform into "smart money," or will the "top contrarian curse" strike again?
It is hard to say definitively, as some have deleted their accounts and run away, refusing to be observed under "survivorship bias," while others have a mix of wins and losses, or use multiple accounts for hedging.
Whether playing the match or predicting the outcome, the only certainty is "uncertainty."
The result of the World Cup is not determined by squad value comparisons, nor by national strength or development systems, and certainly not by the will or financial power of external participants. Whether you follow the smart money or bet against the dumb money, you need to watch the games, enjoy them, and adjust your strategy flexibly.
