美国加密政策下半场：CLARITY法案闯关60票，CFTC“一人委员会”成最大变数

Original author: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director, Washington DC Blockchain Foundation)

Original translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In this sports season full of Cinderella comeback stories, the crypto industry is also awaiting its own moment of glory – the CLARITY Act, currently advancing in the U.S. Senate, could be that crucial "comeback." However, with two quarters left before the final buzzer, securing 60 votes for passage may require Republicans to reach a compromise with the White House on ethical issues, while also courting several Republican senators who are still on the fence.

It's only halftime now; there are still six months left in the year, and anything is possible. Legislative victories and scoring on the court are essentially no different – they require multiple factors to align precisely. Sometimes, burning a little sage for good luck doesn't hurt either – just like the New York Knicks have shown this year.

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for intense bipartisan consultations in both the Senate and the House. Zooming out, market structure legislation is just one piece of a larger puzzle, aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.

The congressional calendar is already packed, with just over 40 legislative working days remaining – even counting the lame-duck session and midterm elections, the time left for parties to strategize and adjust the score is extremely tight.

A Crowded Policy Arena

Beyond the prospects of the CLARITY Act, can the multiple crypto tax proposals spun off from the new PARITY Act hitch a ride on larger legislative "vehicles" and be enacted this year?

Can the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act pull off a "Hail Mary" pass, enshrining developer protections into law?

Additionally, the full-court press surrounding the GENIUS rulemaking continues, with key provisions still awaiting finalization.

For crypto enthusiasts, this feels like following a sports team for an entire season: a rich lineup, constant suspense, both exciting and nerve-wracking.

CFTC Missing from the Starting Lineup

A financial regulatory agency operating with four vacant commissioner seats deeply concerns the industry. For the crypto sector, this directly impacts expectations of Washington action – whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year remains highly uncertain.

Even more thorny is the question of who will win the jurisdictional battle over prediction markets: individual states, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), or ultimately the Supreme Court?

Of course, this is not a suggestion for you to place a bet.

Crypto Champions Nearing Retirement

Regardless of the final policy outcome, the remainder of the year will likely be a bittersweet mix. Two heavyweight "crypto champions" are about to hang up their federal jerseys, and their departures will have significant short- and long-term impacts: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis.

Peirce, a two-term commissioner who leads the SEC's Crypto Task Force, has been a central architect of cross-regulatory coordination efforts. Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, is a key negotiator for bipartisan compromise and a staunch advocate for the BRCA.

H2: Second Half Outlook: What Industry Leaders Think

I interviewed several veteran industry leaders to gauge their assessment of current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their perspectives on CLARITY, taxes, and prediction markets:

Sara K. Weed (Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):

"It's undeniable that we are steadily moving in the right direction. However, constrained by the shortage of legislative working days and election pressures, the likelihood of CLARITY passing in this Congress is low. Therefore, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be forced to play a more active role, providing much-needed certainty for the industry. Of course, the question is how far they can go under their existing authority."

Sulolit "Raj" Mukherjee (CEO, Bodin Advisory):

"If history is any guide, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely to pass not as a standalone bill, but embedded within broader tax, budget, or year-end legislative packages. Many current proposals are relatively focused, have bipartisan consensus, and aim to solve specific problems like de minimis exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. These provisions are easier to advance when attached to must-pass major legislation. Whether they ultimately succeed depends on Congress's allocation of energy, the scoring mechanisms involved, and whether lawmakers view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to improve compliance, rather than part of the larger digital asset policy debate. The chances of at least one or two measures becoming law this year are real, but likely through an omnibus package rather than a standalone crypto tax bill."

Rashan Colbert (US Policy Director, Crypto Council for Innovation):

"I won't predict how the courts will resolve jurisdictional disputes, but the broad direction is clear: as the prediction market category matures, the CFTC is working to create a more durable regulatory framework for it. The recently released NPRM is another step towards providing more transparency and legal certainty for market participants – an area where user numbers and trading volumes are growing rapidly.

The core question is: Should prediction markets primarily be treated as financial market infrastructure, or be broadly classified as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to become sophisticated tools for expressing opinions, hedging risk, and simplifying access to derivatives on various events and assets. Adopting an overly broad gambling framework could stifle their potential before the market has a chance to develop into a positive-sum financial infrastructure."

The second half of the crypto policy game is underway. The time window is narrow, but the window of opportunity remains open. The industry needs sustained cross-party communication and pragmatic efforts to achieve substantial results by 2026.