BIT 投研：ETF 不買了，Strategy 也慢了，比特幣還能靠什麼上漲？

The current market is in a phase of macro repricing dominated by inflation and interest rate expectations. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has benefited from an environment of loose liquidity coexisting with low inflation, continuously strengthening its narrative as a "hedge against monetary dilution." However, as institutional funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin's pricing logic is undergoing a change, becoming increasingly reliant on interest rate expectations and capital flows.

From the current market performance, Bitcoin's recent weakness does not stem from a deterioration of its own fundamentals but rather from two core driving forces behind this bull run weakening. On one hand, the market's expectations for rate cuts have been continuously revised downward; on the other hand, the incremental capital brought in by Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has begun to slow. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is facing rising pressure, and its subsequent trajectory will still depend on inflation and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Inflation Heating Up Again: Interest Rate Expectations Become Bitcoin's Biggest Constraint

The post-pandemic fiscal stimulus has altered the monetary transmission mechanism, with capital not only driving up asset prices but also entering the real economy, significantly boosting inflation roughly 18 months later. In June 2022, US CPI reached a high of 9.1%; subsequently, inflation continued to decline, falling to 2.4% by September 2024, leading the market to increasingly anticipate rate cuts and providing crucial support for Bitcoin's rise.

However, this logic began to change at the end of 2024. As the market worried about a resurgence of inflation, expectations for rate cuts continued to fall. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 went from pricing in approximately 6 cuts in September 2024 to nearly zero in January 2025; although it later recovered to about 2.6 cuts, once CPI returned to around 3%, the market turned cautious again. CPI data released on May 12, 2026, came in at 3.8%, and the market even started pricing in approximately 1.8 rate hikes.

For stocks, higher inflation can still be partially absorbed through nominal income and earnings growth; but Bitcoin lacks cash flow and earnings support, making it more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations. When the market reprices expectations for a higher interest rate path, Bitcoin tends to bear the brunt of the pressure. 

ETF and Institutional Capital Slowdown: The Bull Market's Two Engines Cool Down Simultaneously

In this cycle, the Bitcoin ETF has been one of the most important sources of incremental capital. Since expectations for ETF approval heated up in 2023, institutional funds have become the core force driving the market higher. However, as the Federal Reserve's policy stance turned hawkish, capital inflows noticeably slowed. Entering 2026, Bitcoin ETFs experienced sustained net outflows, and investors' willingness to increase holdings declined significantly.

Especially after the CPI data release on May 12, 2026, ETF outflows intensified markedly, with cumulative outflows reaching approximately $4.3 billion. Over the following 15 trading days, 14 recorded net selling, indicating institutional caution towards a high-inflation environment. Meanwhile, Strategy and Bitcoin ETFs have collectively allocated approximately $110 billion to Bitcoin, but as Strategy's capacity to increase holdings gradually narrows, its role as the second-largest capital engine is also weakening.

With ETF inflows stagnating, institutional allocation willingness declining, and the momentum behind Strategy's accumulation slowing, the two core driving forces underpinning this bull run are showing signs of cooling, presenting greater resistance to a Bitcoin rebound.

Overall, the main challenges Bitcoin currently faces are not internal to the industry but arise from changes in the macroeconomic environment. The loose liquidity and interest rate cut expectations that supported the market in the past are weakening, and institutional capital remains cautious about high inflation and higher interest rates. In the short term, as long as inflation remains high, Bitcoin will likely continue to consolidate in a range. However, looking at historical cycles, inflation will eventually peak. Once inflation declines and expectations for rate cuts are restored, institutional capital is likely to flow back in, potentially ushering in a new, stronger round of recovery for Bitcoin.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target, contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information contained in this content.