Odaily Editorial Tea Party (June 3)
- Core Viewpoint: Multiple analysts shared their judgments on the current crypto market conditions, unanimously agreeing that BTC and ETH have further room to decline, but they have already begun dollar-cost averaging or are waiting to buy the dip, while also paying attention to event-driven opportunities such as the World Cup, SpaceX IPO, and PUMP unlocks.
- Key Elements:
- Wenser predicts a short-term rebound for BTC, but it will start declining after mid-July due to a lack of institutional buying orders. He has been making small, multiple purchases of the dip as a form of DCA.
- The SpaceX IPO is priced at $135 per share, with a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. However, the estimated equity on the Pre-IPO platform deviates from the actual situation, which could lead to dilution of the SPCX contract price.
- Asher plans to start DCA when BTC falls below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. Although there was a short-term rebound to $72,000, he did not execute trades, focusing instead on the exchange's World Cup event activities.
- Nan Zhi pointed out that there is no Alpha left in the entire AI hardware industry chain, but shortages make it impossible to falsify performance. He personally plans to watch for the moment when top tokens drop to penny-stock prices.
- The Pump token will unlock 8.25% of its total supply on July 14. Despite the bleak market conditions, Pump.fun’s daily revenue still exceeds $900,000. Golem suggests paying attention to buying opportunities before and after the unlock.
This is an "informal" column from inside the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuanced details; expands on investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under verification — which may not be direct wealth passwords, but could also be questions themselves; shares observations from interactions with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely improved our understanding, whether internal or external.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to build consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Discussion Group, X Official Account) to exchange ideas, ask questions, and chat casually.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Bio: Tea refiller, crypto bystander, media observer
Shares: 1. BTC declined but I didn’t short it, because I feel there is still a small rebound to come, and a smooth decline should begin around mid-July, since there are no institutional buy orders from last year’s DAT wave; currently making small repeated purchases, treating it as a DCA.
2. SpaceX IPO is tentatively scheduled for next week, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Preparing to harvest Polymarket SpaceX-related positions; the commercial aerospace stock sector may see good news turn into bad news. RKLB might need to be cautious?
3. The World Cup is about to start. The odds for predicting the champion seem reasonable. I currently have orders placed on France and Spain, can buy in discretionally. https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner
4. Suggest paying attention to the "Jensen Huang sector." See the "Crypto-Stock Barometer" released every Tuesday for details. https://www.odaily.news/post/5211119
5. Odaily has been very timely in tracking stocks, ZEC, HYPE, BNB recently; those who followed have profited. Suggest turning on app notifications and adding the bell icon. Follow Odaily, trade global stocks, enjoy a free life — you deserve it~
Asher (@Asher_0210)
Bio: Regular routine, long-term investment
Shares: 1. Regarding the market, I plan to start DCAing BTC below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. There is a possibility of a short-term rebound to $72,000, but as a long-term DCA investor, I have no interest in DCAing or bottom-fishing at current levels. I can also accept it if prices don’t drop. First, since this is spot DCA, there won’t be explosive returns anyway — this portion of DCA funds for BTC and ETH is only for stability. Second, I have many early-stage projects I’m farming; if the market picks up, they might gradually issue tokens, potentially bringing pleasant surprises.
2. Prediction markets: The World Cup is coming. Major exchanges and prediction duopoly Polymarket and Kalshi will likely launch activities this week. The focus should still be on farming these activities.
3. Regarding PUMP: July 14 will see the largest unlock, releasing 8.25% of the total supply. Although the market is bleak, Pump.fun’s daily revenue remains above $900,000. There might be buying opportunities around the unlock. Personally, even if the crypto space remains in its current "half-dead" state, the Meme track will still occasionally produce hot topics. Therefore, I believe that as the largest Meme launch platform, I have already started DCAing PUMP. Additionally, I will soon write an analysis of PUMP tokens from a supply-demand perspective. Stay tuned.
golem (@web3_golem)
Bio: golem’s whimsical ideas
Shares: Let me talk again about SpaceX’s pre-IPO valuation on secondary trading platforms. I still hold long positions in SPCX. Today, Reuters reported that SpaceX plans to issue 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, corresponding to a company valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. This implies SpaceX’s total shares outstanding are about 12.963 billion. Previously, SpaceX’s S-1 filing also revealed total shares outstanding, roughly between 12.5 billion and 13 billion, which is basically consistent with Reuters’ report.
Why do I care about SpaceX’s total shares? Because the current SpaceX perpetual contract on Pre-IPO platforms mainly uses a valuation formula: "SPCX current price * estimated shares = SpaceX pre-IPO valuation." Both tradexyz and Binance estimate SpaceX’s total shares at 11.87 billion. Logically, if the actual total shares are higher than their estimates, then even if the pre-IPO valuation remains unchanged, the SPCX contract price on the platform would be diluted. This is why the SPCX pre-market contract fell over 3% this morning.
It’s not a valuation collapse; instead, the market is independently pricing based on SpaceX’s actual shares, deviating from the Pre-IPO platform’s estimated share count. Regarding this large deviation between the platform’s estimated shares and SpaceX’s actual total shares, tradexyz and Binance have not yet taken action. Binance did protect itself when listing the SPCX pre-market contract, stating that Binance reserves the right to adjust the contract amount of the Pre-IPO perpetual contract based on actual shares.
In short, this is extremely unfavorable for ordinary investors. We not only have to bet on SpaceX’s actual IPO market cap but also contend with the rules of these Pre-IPO platforms. If the pre-IPO valuation aligns with the actual market cap at listing but the SPCX contract price collapses due to differences in total shares, who bears the investors’ losses?
US stock Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are a new phenomenon being widely rolled out this cycle, but many rough issues in actual operation still need discussion and resolution.
South Orange (@Assassin_Malvo)
Bio: Choking together for dreams
Shares: 1. The entire AI hardware supply chain has been thoroughly mined. There are no Alpha plays left, only Beta plays, just varying in magnitude.
2. The entire supply chain is short — short — short on components. Earnings cannot be falsified, and financial reports will only look better. The question then boils down to whether growth rates can become increasingly beyond imagination.
3. I exited MRVL midway. In hindsight, I underestimated people’s demand for dream-making, imagination, and sentiment.
4. Returning to point 1, looking at the medium term, sentiment is key. Driven by dreams, stocks will only accelerate, not sell the news.
5. My personal focus for dreaming — when will the token prices of top-tier models drop to peanuts?
