Bitwise首席投資官：加密貨幣淪為逆向投資，三個邏輯看懂當前市場

Original author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise

Original compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

In previous memos, I usually focused on the single most important event in the market. However, the current industry landscape is filled with complex variables, making it difficult to structure an argument around just one narrative. This article analyzes the market from three dimensions.

1) Crypto Assets Have Become a Contrarian Investment Choice

The current crypto market is bleak. Bitcoin is down 21% year-to-date, while major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have suffered even deeper losses of 33%, 37%, and 31% respectively. Crypto ETFs continue to experience net capital outflows, and spot trading volumes have hit multi-year lows.

The key reason for this weak market performance is that crypto is no longer the hottest trend in the capital markets. AI concept stocks, robotics companies, SpaceX, and other high-profile entities are stealing the spotlight. The Nasdaq 100 Index has surged 43% year-to-date, naturally diverting capital away from the crypto space.

In an environment where the AI sector is absorbing capital from the entire market, the crypto industry is undergoing a painful transformation: evolving from a trending, momentum-driven theme to a contrarian investment target.

This is a critical turning point for the industry's direction. Momentum investing rides the wave of market hype, providing excellent returns when the market is rising. Contrarian investing, however, is a long, grueling process that tests investors' patience, long-term thinking, and fundamental analysis skills, with returns coming in fits and starts.

This also explains why crypto capital is increasingly valuing project revenue. Protocols like Hyperliquid, which have solid fundamentals, are favored. The market hasn't abandoned the crypto space, but under a contrarian investment logic, capital is moving away from sentiment-driven speculation and towards fundamentally strong targets.

The crypto industry will not die, but the type of investors and projects rewarded by the market has completely changed. Understanding this is key to seizing profit opportunities in the next bull run.

2) The Market Awaits Regulatory Clarity, but the CLARITY Act Likely Faces an Uphill Battle

The second major reason for the weak crypto market performance is the significant regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act.

This bill is a core regulatory framework for the crypto industry in the US. It is currently progressing through Congress and aims to establish a unified set of crypto regulations nationwide. Although the bill recently passed a hurdle in the Senate, data from the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 55% probability of it being passed into law this year. My personal view is more pessimistic: recent conversations with Washington insiders revealed that the Democratic camp estimates the probability of passage at only 5%, while the Republican camp estimates it at 30%. Whether the probability is 5%, 30%, or 50%, the bill's passage is far from guaranteed.

This uncertainty keeps institutional capital on the sidelines. From the perspective of a large institutional investor, it's a binary choice:

• Invest in AI stocks, which are hitting new all-time highs one after another;
• Allocate to crypto assets, which face a nearly 50% downside risk related to the bill's passage in the next two months.

It's difficult for the latter to attract capital in this scenario.

Therefore, until regulatory clarity is achieved, it will be hard for major crypto coins to sustain a strong bull market. More important than the bill's eventual passage or failure is the removal of the uncertainty itself. If the bill passes, crypto will rise; if it fails, the industry can gradually absorb the negative impact. Only the prolonged and uncertain tug-of-war phase makes it hard for the market to strengthen.

3) Capital Shifts Towards a New Generation of Fundamentally Sound Assets

This bear market is fundamentally different from past crypto winters. In previous winters, capital fled to Bitcoin as a safe haven, while altcoins collapsed across the board. This time, however, capital is not crowding into safe-haven assets. Instead, it is rotating towards smaller, fundamentally sound emerging projects.

Looking at the monthly returns of major crypto coins in May 2026: The most noteworthy aspect of the market is not the widespread decline, but the assets that are bucking the trend. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all weakened simultaneously, Hyperliquid surged 72% in a single month, Zcash rose 50%, and XLM gained 44%. None of these are mega-cap coins, but they are attracting capital based on their unique fundamental narratives.

This is a concrete manifestation of the "contrarian logic" discussed earlier: as crypto moves away from speculative trends and fundamentals become the core of valuation, a capital rotation is already underway.

At the same time, the ability of specific assets to generate profits against the broader trend suggests this bear market is entering its mid-to-late stages. In a deep bear market, everything falls. When a group of assets starts posting independent gains based on real fundamentals, it signals an upcoming shift in the market cycle.

Conclusion

To be honest, the market will likely continue to face pressure in the short term. The tug-of-war over the CLARITY Act will persist, SpaceX's upcoming IPO and Anthropic filing their prospectus mean AI themes will continue to dominate financial headlines. Adding to crypto positions now will probably feel painful, but the essence of contrarian investing is precisely deploying capital in areas no one is watching and making counter-intuitive decisions.

That is exactly the state of the crypto market today. Patience and conviction are the keys to success. Anchoring on fundamentals and value to find high-quality projects will yield substantial long-term returns.