BIT 投研：SpaceX 衝刺兆美元估值，市場究竟在買單什麼？
- 核心觀點：SpaceX 的估值邏輯正從傳統火箭公司向覆蓋 AI、全球連接與太空基礎設施的平台型資產轉變，其約 2.3 兆美元的市場隱含估值已反映高成長預期，但需警惕流動性壓力與估值紀律風險。
- 關鍵要素：
- SpaceX 收購 xAI 將其可尋址市場推升至約 28.5 兆美元，其中 AI 市場佔據 26.5 兆美元，遠超傳統太空業務的 0.4 兆美元。
- Binance 與 Hyperliquid 上的 SpaceX Pre-IPO 永續合約價格較 1.75 兆美元目標估值溢價約 34%，對應隱含市值約 2.3 兆美元。
- Starlink 2025 年收入達 114 億美元（年增 50%），EBITDA 利潤率 63%，但單一用戶 ARPU 從 99 美元降至 66 美元，成長效率有待考驗。
- 當前估值約對應 100 倍市銷率，遠高於多數大型科技企業，需持續強化成長敘事與執行能力支撐。
- IPO 預計募資約 860 億美元，200 億美元過橋貸款用於置換高收益債務，鎖定期安排可能導致持續流動性壓力。
- 全球太空經濟規模預計從 2023 年的 6,300 億美元增至 2033 年的 1.8 兆美元，發射成本下降與 AI 協同效應增強是核心驅動因素。
The market is currently repricing around what could be SpaceX's largest IPO in history. While most investors focus on its target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, what may be more noteworthy is the shifting growth narrative it represents. With SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, the market is beginning to view it as a platform-based asset covering AI, global connectivity networks, and space infrastructure, rather than just a rocket company.
From a market pricing perspective, SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Hyperliquid are trading at a premium of about 34% to the $1.75 trillion target valuation, implying a market capitalization of roughly $2.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a bigger story ahead of time, and investors need to determine whether this narrative can justify such a high valuation.
From Rocket Company to Infrastructure Platform: Reshaping SpaceX's Valuation Logic
The combination of SpaceX and xAI pushes its Total Addressable Market (TAM) to approximately $28.5 trillion. This includes an AI-related market size of roughly $26.5 trillion, global connectivity networks of about $1.6 trillion, and traditional space operations themselves at around $0.4 trillion.
This indicates that the market is currently pricing in not Mars exploration, but rather the broader infrastructure value of data centers, AI, and global communication networks. As SpaceX's core asset, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has declined from $99 three years ago to $66. Whether future user growth and profitability can rise in tandem will be a key factor in determining valuation.
Meanwhile, SpaceX's current valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 100x, far exceeding most large technology companies. Such a high valuation not only requires continuously strengthening the growth narrative but also demands that the company maintain极强的 execution capability for years to come.
Behind the High Valuation: IPO Liquidity and Expectations for Space Economy Expansion
Since 2002, SpaceX has raised only about $12 billion in cumulative primary market financing. This IPO is expected to raise approximately $86 billion and could generate around $800 million in underwriting revenue for Wall Street. Additionally, in March 2026, SpaceX signed a $20 billion bridge loan to replace high-yield debt related to X and xAI, making this listing also significant for optimizing its balance sheet.
Notably, SpaceX has adopted a relatively flexible lock-up arrangement. Some early investors can sell up to 20% of their eligible shares after the first quarterly earnings report, and additional shares will be unlocked if the stock price rises 30% above the offering price. This means the market will face ongoing liquidity tests post-IPO, explaining why the market narrative surrounding SpaceX needs constant reinforcement to absorb potential future supply pressure.
From a longer-term perspective, the core of the market's bet remains the expansion of the space economy. Mainstream forecasts suggest the global space economy could grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033. As launch costs continue to decline, the synergies between satellite networks, orbital data, and AI applications are increasingly strengthening, and true value may gradually concentrate at the platform and application layers.
Overall, SpaceX's current valuation already reflects high market expectations, and valuation discipline remains crucial in the short term. For investors, the focus should perhaps be not limited to SpaceX itself, but on the long-term trend it represents – the increasingly intertwined convergence of AI, global connectivity networks, space infrastructure, and digital assets. If this trend continues to evolve, related listed companies and space economy-themed assets could also serve as important windows for observing this narrative.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Market risks exist, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
