提前看答案再交卷？Google工程師身陷Polymarket內線交易案
- 核心觀點：一名Google安全工程師被控利用公司內部搜尋數據，在預測市場Polymarket上非法獲利超過120萬美元，該案凸顯了預測市場在內線資訊交易及合規審查方面的深層風險。
- 關鍵要素：
- 事件核心：Google安全工程師Michele Spagnuolo利用內部工具查看2025年最受搜尋人物數據，並透過關聯帳戶Polymarket交易歌手D4vd等相關市場，獲利超過120萬美元。
- 司法指控：美國檢方指控其利用重大非公開資訊交易，涉及商品詐欺、電信詐欺和洗錢等罪名。資金最終透過隱私工具轉移至其本人身分的義大利帳戶。
- 數據與交易連結：檢方透過內部工具存取記錄、交易時間戳、鏈上資金路徑及隱私工具使用，構建了完整的證據鏈，證明其利用非公開資訊獲利。
- Polymarket合規壓力：案件將Polymarket推向監管「深水區」，此前該平台已面臨西班牙、印尼等地的封禁，現被要求加強KYC以應對交易來源與資訊審查。
- 行業影響：此案預示預測市場監管升級，重點從「能否交易」轉向「誰在交易、基於什麼資訊交易」，平台透明可追蹤特性反成監管工具。
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)
What prediction markets fear most is not someone making accurate bets, but someone knowing the answer in advance.
Recently, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York released indictment materials stating that Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo is suspected of using an internal company tool to view data related to the 2025 most-searched people list, and trading corresponding markets on Polymarket through a linked account, ultimately profiting over $1.2 million. Spagnuolo has been arrested and charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
A Google Employee Targeted the Search Ranking Market
The starting point of this case was a Polymarket prediction market related to Google search results. These markets predict whether certain individuals will appear on the 2025 most-searched people list. For ordinary traders, this is a judgment call about trends and traffic, but Spagnuolo's identity made the situation sensitive.
Indictment materials show that Spagnuolo, a Google security engineer, had access to internal company tools to view relevant search data. Subsequently, a linked account named AlphaRaccoon began buying on Polymarket, transferring approximately 3.8 million USDC to a Polymarket address and participating in multiple prediction markets related to Google search results.
The most crucial transaction involved the singer D4vd. Spagnuolo used Google's internal tools to see that D4vd's search popularity was rising. Hours later, the AlphaRaccoon account traded on Polymarket, betting that D4vd would become one of the most-searched people in late November.
This is the core of the prosecution's case. An ordinary user buying D4vd bets on news trends and social media discussions; but if a trader has just viewed internal Google search data before trading the corresponding market, that transaction is no longer just a well-timed bet. The prosecution argues that Spagnuolo used material non-public information to trade and profited over $1.2 million through related operations.
From Polymarket to an Italian Account: The Money Trail Surfaces
After profiting from the trades, the flow of funds also came under scrutiny.
Indictment materials show that AlphaRaccoon subsequently transferred 5 million USDC.e from the Polymarket account to a wallet. The funds were then moved through exchange services and privacy tools, with a portion eventually ending up in an account at an Italian payment processing institution. The prosecution claims that this account was opened using Spagnuolo's personal identification documents.
In other words, the prosecution did not just discover an unusually profitable Polymarket account; they have linked together internal tool access records, transaction timings, on-chain transfer paths, privacy tool usage, and the real-world account that ultimately received the funds.
Google Says It Is Cooperating with Law Enforcement and Has Suspended Spagnuolo
Google subsequently responded, stating that the company is cooperating with law enforcement and has suspended Spagnuolo from his position.
A Google spokesperson stated that the employee used a tool accessible to all employees to view relevant marketing materials. However, using such confidential information for trading is a serious violation of company policy, and the company will take appropriate action.
The prosecution further alleged in the indictment materials that Spagnuolo not only used material non-public information for Polymarket trades but also, after profiting, transferred funds through wallets, exchange services, and privacy tools in an attempt to conceal the source and ownership of the proceeds.
Polymarket's Compliance Pressure Enters Deeper Waters
The impact of this case extends beyond the arrest of a single Google engineer.
Recently, Polymarket has faced more controversy regarding regional access and regulatory classification. The Spanish government issued a preventive block against Polymarket, arguing that the platform operates without a gambling license; Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs also blocked Polymarket, classifying it as an illegal online gambling platform.
Now, pressure is mounting on the trades themselves. According to The Information, Polymarket is pushing for KYC identification for traders to reduce potential sanctions and legal risks. Meanwhile, some users still trade through automated bots, Telegram tools, and gray channels, making it increasingly difficult for the platform to avoid one question: who exactly is making these trades?
Facing regulatory scrutiny, Polymarket's response has been to emphasize cooperation and traceability. The platform stated that it is cooperating with the U.S. prosecution and the CFTC, and noted that blockchain transactions are transparent and traceable.
In this context, the Spagnuolo case feels more like a signal. The risk for prediction markets is no longer just "whether users can trade on a certain event." It is that as the market grows and traders become more sophisticated, the platform must prove that the source of trades, the path of funds, and the origin of information can withstand scrutiny.
Polymarket can still tell the story of "trading probabilities," but regulators are asking a more specific question: behind those probabilities, who exactly is trading, and with what information are they trading?
