BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: A Comprehensive Review of Macroeconomics, Crude Oil, AI Tech Stocks, and the Crypto Market
- Core Viewpoint: On the macro level, US employment data shows structural divergence and is distorted by model adjustments, while the systematic impact of AI on employment has yet to materialize. Crude oil inventories support prices, but demand is suppressed, with China playing a significant stabilizing role. The crypto market is seeing a modest uptrend driven by a recovery in broad market risk appetite, with moderate institutional buying. Meanwhile, stablecoin issuance provides a dual-track arbitrage demonstration for institutions building their own public chains.
- Key Elements:
- US non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs in April, but growth was heavily reliant on the healthcare sector (adding 618,000 jobs) and was positively adjusted by approximately 391,000 jobs due to the "business birth/death model." However, the household survey showed a decline of 226,000 employed individuals, casting doubt on data reliability.
- Global crude oil buffer inventories have been drawn down by approximately 300 million barrels to around 800 million barrels, supporting oil prices near $100. However, high prices are suppressing demand. China's average daily crude oil imports decreased by about 3.5 million barrels in April, and the pause in restocking has temporarily eased supply-demand tensions.
- AI tech stocks face short-term pressure from potential index weight adjustments triggered by SpaceX's possible IPO (which could lead to selling of leaders like Nvidia). The mid-term earnings season will test the ROI and commercialization efficiency of AI. The end of the year may see a bubble stress test due to IPOs and the election.
- In the crypto market, the BTC price rose from $77,000 to $82,000. There is strong proactive buying intent in the spot market (robust CVD indicator), while the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating continued shorting of altcoins or ETH by some capital.
- Last week, ETF net inflows reached approximately $791 million, but institutional buying was relatively moderate: BMBMR bought about 26,000 ETH, below the expected 70,000; Strategy bought only 535 BTC at an average price of $80,000.
- Circle's self-built public chain ARC secured funding at a $3 billion valuation. The industry's "listing + issuing coins/chains" dual-track arbitrage model is clear. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains may represent the next phase of structural opportunities.
1. Macroeconomic & Traditional Financial Markets
1.1 US Employment Data and the Impact of AI on Jobs
Non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, seemingly above expectations, but the market has questioned the data's quality. Job growth remains heavily reliant on the healthcare sector, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while other sectors collectively shed about 367,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, highlighting a widening structural divergence in the labor market.
The ostensibly strong April non-farm figure was significantly influenced by the "business birth/death model." This model provided a positive adjustment of roughly 391,000 jobs in April, suggesting that some of the reported gains were model estimations rather than survey results. In contrast, the household survey indicated that actual employment fell by around 226,000 in April, a stark divergence that deepens market skepticism regarding the reliability of the jobs data.
The impact of AI on employment is starting to draw attention. Information sector jobs decreased by about 30,000 in April and have been on a sustained decline this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, the US unemployment rate remains near 4.3%, making it premature to conclude that AI has caused a systemic shock to the overall labor market. Further observation is needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workers.
1.2 Crude Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently stabilized around $100 per barrel. Global available crude oil buffer stock is approximately 800 million barrels. As of the end of April, about 300 million barrels had been consumed, providing support for prices from the inventory side. However, high prices are clearly suppressing demand, with global daily oil demand decreasing by approximately 2.8 million barrels in March and 4.3 million barrels in April.
China is playing a stabilizing role in the current oil price trajectory. China's current crude oil reserves are about 1.4 billion barrels. In April, it significantly cut crude oil imports, reducing daily imports by roughly 3.5 million barrels to a low point since 2024. China's pause or slowdown in replenishing its strategic reserves has, to some extent, alleviated global supply-demand tensions and curbed further upward pressure on oil prices.
Regarding US-Iran relations, the probability of reaching a phased memorandum agreement between the two sides this month is relatively high. The core of any deal would likely revolve around keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, reducing conflict risks, and curbing oil prices. Maintaining short-term stability and avoiding runaway oil prices aligns with the interests of both parties.
1.3 Short-to-Medium-to-Long Term Outlook for AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, AI tech stocks face a mix of positive and negative factors. Positive catalysts include the potential marginal easing of US-China trade relations and the possibility of a phased US-Iran agreement improving market risk appetite. Negative factors stem from potential index weight adjustments. If SpaceX goes public in June and is added to the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds might need to sell top-5 weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to make room, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders, though lower-ranked constituents like Micron (MU) could benefit.
In the medium term, the mid-July earnings season will be a crucial validation point for AI tech stocks. Market valuations for AI companies are entering their second half, shifting from narrative-driven themes towards a greater focus on AI return on investment, commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long run, the end of the year could mark a significant test for the AI bubble. The US election may bring policy disruptions. IPO launches by trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI or Anthropic could also drain liquidity from secondary markets. Furthermore, if corporate capital expenditures consistently exceed cash flow and rely on debt financing, AI stocks could enter the late stages of a bubble, facing stress tests similar to the post-internet bubble era.
2. Crypto Market Trends and Ecosystem
2.1 Market Snapshot and Trading Data
The crypto market has recently benefited from a recovery in broad market risk appetite, showing a moderately bullish trend. BTC has risen from around $77,000 last week to approximately $82,000. While spot trading volume has rebounded, it remains at relatively low levels. The CVD indicator has shown strong performance, indicating clear active buying interest on the spot side, with buying pressure dominating.
On the derivatives side, open interest has increased alongside the price rally, but perpetual swap funding rates remain negative. This suggests persistent short positions in the market, primarily concentrated in altcoins or ETH. In the options market, the willingness to buy Puts for downside protection is declining, with bearish demand retreating and bullish sentiment spreading. The overall structure suggests this rally may have transitioned from its early stages into the middle phase, but attention is needed to see if volume can expand further.
On the large capital flow front, ETFs continued to see net inflows last week, totaling approximately $791 million. BMBMR purchased around 26,000 ETH, below the market's anticipated minimum of 70,000. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC, with an average buy price near $80,000. Overall, institutional buying is present but relatively mild compared to expectations.
2.2 Stablecoins and the Trend of Institutions Launching Chains
Circle's recent financial report showed revenue missed expectations, but the stock price performed relatively resiliently, suggesting the market still acknowledges its long-term narrative. Concurrently, Circle's self-built public chain, ARC, has achieved a valuation of approximately $3 billion in funding, further clarifying the trend of stablecoin issuers extending towards underlying infrastructure.
A dual-track arbitrage model of "going public + issuing coins/chains" is emerging in the industry. On one hand, projects gain compliant status, access to traditional capital market funding, and credibility by listing a traditional entity. On the other, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture crypto market liquidity, benefiting from the dual premium of equity valuation and token valuation.
Circle has provided a relatively clear demonstration effect. Subsequently, other projects with user bases, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems may follow a similar path. For instance, projects related to the Telegram ecosystem or PM have an increasing probability of capturing on-chain liquidity by launching chains or tokens in the future. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institution-built chains could become major structural opportunities in the next phase of the crypto market.
This article is for market analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please thoroughly assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.
