Coinbase裁員14%，熊市和AI哪個才是主因？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

On the evening of May 5th, Beijing time, Coinbase, the leading compliant exchange in the crypto world, officially announced a 14% workforce reduction,预计裁減約 660 名員工。 Layoff notices have been sent via email. All affected US employees will receive at least 16 weeks of base pay (with an additional 2 weeks for each year of service), their next equity vesting, and six months of COBRA health insurance. Employees on work visas will receive additional transition support.

In the layoff announcement, Coinbase founder and CEO Brian Armstrong cited two main reasons for the reduction, with Armstrong specifically elaborating on the second point.

First, the market environment —— Coinbase's business performance continues to fluctuate with market cycles. To navigate the current downward cycle, an immediate cost structure adjustment is necessary to enter the next growth phase in a leaner, faster, and more efficient state.

Second, the AI technological revolution —— Armstrong emphasized that AI is changing how companies operate. An engineer skilled with AI can now complete in days what previously took a team weeks. Non-technical teams are also beginning to deliver production-grade code. This change accelerates daily, and all companies, including Coinbase, face the same test. Rather than waiting passively, it's better to proactively and consciously adjust, rebuilding Coinbase into a lean, fast, and AI-centric company.

• Odaily Note: Armstrong's statement that "non-technical teams are also beginning to deliver production-grade code" has sparked some controversy on X. Given Coinbase's role as a direct custodian of user assets and its past history of information leaks, some professionals have criticized the company's operational rigor in this regard.

Looking ahead, Coinbase aims to fundamentally change how the company operates – rebuilding Coinbase as an "agent," with humans coordinating at its edges. Specifically, Coinbase will compress organizational layers (a maximum of 5 layers below CEO/COO), require management to participate in front-line work, and build smaller, more flexible teams around AI talent.

Layoffs Under the Guise of AI: A New Trend in Silicon Valley

Laying off employees under the pretext of "AI-driven productivity improvement" is nothing new.

Last October, Amazon cut as many as 30,000 positions across its logistics, payments, video games, and cloud computing divisions. Earlier, CEO Andy Jassy had foreshadowed these layoffs: "As the company increasingly uses AI to perform tasks previously done by humans, Amazon's workforce may shrink."

In late February of this year, Jack Dorsey's (also Twitter's founder) fintech company, Block, announced the elimination of 4,000 positions, reducing its total workforce from over 10,000 to fewer than 6,000, aiming for a leaner, flatter, and AI-centric organizational structure. Block CFO and COO Amrita Ahuja revealed that after the layoff announcement, numerous corporate executives proactively contacted Block seeking to replicate this "playbook."

In mid-April, Snap also cut approximately 1,000 jobs. CEO Evan Spiegel stated: "AI will enable our teams to reduce repetitive work, increase efficiency, and better support our community, partners, and advertisers."

Following suit, Reuters reported that Meta also plans to initiate the first round of its large-scale layoffs this year on May 20th, cutting about 10% of its global workforce (totaling approximately 79,000 employees), which is around 8,000 people. Insiders revealed that Meta plans further layoffs in the second half of the year, but the specific timing and scale are not yet finalized. Meta's leadership may adjust the plans based on ongoing observations of AI capability development.

• Odaily Note: See "Jack Dorsey's Company: 4,000 White-Collar Workers Being Replaced by AI" and "Back at the AI Poker Table, is Zuckerberg's First Move Layoffs?".

But is AI the real primary reason for these layoffs? Perhaps not necessarily. Several industry leaders have commented, suggesting that many companies using "AI productivity improvements" as a reason for layoffs are merely masking underlying business outlook or revenue pressures.

During Nvidia's GTC 2026, Jensen Huang criticized companies laying off employees under the pretext of AI efficiency gains in an interview: "Those leaders who respond to AI by laying off people simply can't think of a better way; they have no new ideas left. Even with powerful tools, they won't use them for expansion."

Tech journalist Derek Thompson also commented after Coinbase's layoff announcement: "AI is indeed good at writing code...But many layoff plans were going to happen anyway, and now they are being whitewashed by AI. Macro history shows that tech industry shifts often accelerate during economic downturns. Therefore, struggling companies are forced to do more with less first."

Compared to other companies that performed well in revenue at the time of their layoffs (like Block), Coinbase's situation seems more susceptible to this logic.

Coinbase's Real Revenue Pressures

The nature of Coinbase's core business dictates that its revenue is highly correlated with the cyclical fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market.

As shown in the chart above, since the cryptocurrency market peaked around Q2 2025 and entered a bearish phase, Coinbase's revenue and net profit figures have shown a clear turning point – revenue growth has slowed or even declined; net profit has compressed significantly for three consecutive quarters, with Q4 2025 recording a massive $670 million loss (primarily driven by crypto asset impairment).

As of now, while BTC has recently reclaimed the $80,000 level, there are no signs of a cyclical shift in the market in the short term. Against this backdrop, Coinbase has ample and direct motivation to pursue "cost reduction and efficiency improvement."

According to Dragonfly investor Omar Kanji's estimate, after the 14% workforce reduction, Coinbase is expected to save $225 million in annual salary expenses. This will undoubtedly significantly alleviate Coinbase's current revenue pressures.

See You at the Friday Earnings Report

As of 23:20 Beijing time on May 5th, COIN stock was trading at $198.98, down 1.98% for the day. The market seems unenthusiastic about this layoff announcement.

After the US stock market closes on May 7th local time (May 8th Beijing time), Coinbase will officially release its Q1 2026 financial results and hold a video webcast to discuss the results at 5:30 AM on May 8th. However, considering the state of the crypto market in Q1, it's difficult to be optimistic about this earnings report.

What Coinbase's actual revenue situation looks like right now – we'll see the real answer in just a few days.