五大巨頭財報週前瞻：市場在看什麼？

Foreword: This is not an ordinary earnings week, but a concentrated test of the tech narrative

This week, the U.S. stock market will face a true 'core asset exam week.' Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will all report earnings after the market close on April 29, while Apple will release its latest results after the market close on April 30. Since these five companies cover almost all of the most important current tech narratives—cloud computing, advertising, consumer electronics, e-commerce, enterprise software, and AI infrastructure—their earnings reports will affect far more than just their own stocks; they will determine what the entire Nasdaq and tech sector are willing to trade next.

If the market narrative of the past few months were condensed into one sentence, it would be: Big tech continues to increase AI spending, and the market continues to raise valuations for tech leaders. But the problem is, after valuations have risen to this level, the market is no longer satisfied with the fact that 'companies are investing in AI.' Instead, it's starting to ask more practical questions: Have these investments continued to drive cloud business growth? Have they led to improved advertising efficiency? Have they supported end-user demand? And most critically, are they beginning to translate more clearly into revenue, profit, and future guidance?

Microsoft’s mid-point revenue guidance for this quarter was approximately $81.2 billion, with Azure growth guidance at 37%—38%; Alphabet has set its 2026 capital expenditure plan at $175 billion—$185 billion; Amazon expects 2026 CapEx of around $200 billion; Meta has raised its 2026 CapEx target to $115 billion—$135 billion. These numbers alone indicate that the true theme of this earnings season is whether the market will continue to accept these high levels of spending.

I. What Does the Market Really Want to Confirm This Earnings Season?

1. Are the Big Tech Companies Still Willing to Spend on AI?

Because the valuations of many AI infrastructure companies are essentially built on one premise: super-buyers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will continue to place orders, expand data centers, and purchase computing power, networking, and power infrastructure. If management signals any caution regarding capital expenditure during earnings calls, it won't just affect their own stocks but the entire AI supply chain.

2. Can the Cash Cows of Cloud and Advertising Remain Stable?

Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and AWS are the most direct windows into corporate IT spending and AI demand. Meanwhile, the advertising businesses of Google and Meta represent the core cash flow resilience of internet platforms. If both cloud and advertising remain stable, the market will continue to believe that: even with high CapEx, tech giants can still support future investments with their mature businesses.

3. Is AI Still Just a Story, or Has It Begun to Translate into Profits?

All five companies are talking about AI, but they validate it in different ways: Microsoft looks at enterprise payments, Google at cloud and search, Amazon at AWS and its custom chips, Meta at advertising efficiency, and Apple at the terminal interface and ecosystem. It is precisely because of these different perspectives that this earnings season is particularly compelling.

II. What Questions Must Each of the Five Giants Answer?

1. Microsoft: The First Question Isn't Growth, but How Far AI Commercialization Has Progressed

Among the five giants, Microsoft is most like the 'showcase model' of this AI cycle. The market's willingness to give Microsoft a premium over the past year is not just because it's a cloud leader, but because it's seen as the company most likely to turn AI into a real business first. With Copilot embedded in Office, development tools, and enterprise workflows, plus Azure as the underlying cloud platform, Microsoft's advantage is its ability to not only provide model capabilities but also directly reach the enterprise customers most willing to pay.

Therefore, the most important aspect of Microsoft's earnings this time isn't just revenue growth, but whether AI's 'penetration power' into the revenue structure continues to strengthen. The market consensus for FY2026 Q3 is around $81.4 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $4.07; Microsoft's own revenue guidance range for this quarter is $80.65 billion—$81.75 billion, roughly in line with expectations.

The key metrics to watch are whether Azure's growth rate can remain in a high range and whether AI products like Copilot show clearer commercialization progress. Last quarter, Microsoft reported Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 39% and provided guidance of 37%—38% for this quarter. This means the market's core expectation for this report is not really about 'whether it will grow,' but 'whether AI is still driving accelerated growth.'

If Microsoft can continue to prove that enterprise customers haven't cut budgets for AI tools and that Azure's AI contribution is still increasing, the market will see it as the core leader in 'AI commercialization paying off first,' benefiting related enterprise software, cloud, and data center chains. Conversely, if Azure doesn't show further strength and CapEx pressure remains high, the market will refocus on the return on investment.

In other words, the most critical aspect of Microsoft's earnings this time is not to prove that AI is important, but to prove that enterprises are still actually paying for AI.

2. Google: Cloud Next Just Told the Story, Now Earnings Must Deliver the Results

Compared to Microsoft, Google's position this time is more like a 'launch event first, then a quiz.' Cloud Next 2026 just wrapped up, with Google releasing many signals about AI agents, Gemini Enterprise, Vertex AI, TPUs, and infrastructure investments. This has indeed raised the market's expectations for Google Cloud. But conferences talk about vision, while earnings reports look at execution. The biggest pressure on Alphabet this earnings season stems precisely from the need to quickly turn the 'story' into 'numbers.'

Google's uniqueness lies in the fact that it is neither a pure cloud company nor a pure advertising company; it straddles two major narratives: Google Cloud and AI infrastructure on one side, and search and advertising—a mature cash flow machine—on the other. The current market consensus for Q1 is roughly $106.9 billion—$107.0 billion in revenue and EPS of around $2.73. But more than just looking at revenue and EPS, the key is whether three things can hold simultaneously: Google Cloud continues to grow, CapEx remains high, and search advertising stays robust. In February, Alphabet clearly outlined a 2026 CapEx plan of $175 billion—$185 billion; last quarter, Google Cloud revenue grew 48% to $17.7 billion, with an annualized run rate exceeding $70 billion and backlog orders accelerating. This means the market has already partially priced in the 'strong Cloud, heavy AI spending' narrative.

So, the real test for Google is not whether Cloud can grow, but whether it can maintain its profit base in search and advertising while continuing heavy investment. If all three lines are stable, Alphabet is likely to be redefined by the market as the most 'balanced offense-defense' AI platform leader. However, if any of Cloud, CapEx, or advertising shows weakness, market demands will quickly become stricter.

Google's earnings this time represent not whether a single business beats expectations, but whether, after Cloud Next, the earnings can actually meet those expectations.

3. Amazon: The Real Difficulty Isn't AWS, But 'Investing and Making Money at the Same Time'

The difficulty of Amazon's earnings this time differs from Microsoft and Google. The market will certainly look at AWS, but looking only at AWS isn't enough, because Amazon is not solely a cloud platform company; it simultaneously carries the burden of retail, e-commerce, logistics, advertising, and cash flow generation. In other words, when the market looks at Microsoft and Google, it's more about AI and enterprise demand; when it looks at Amazon, it's about whether a company can bet heavily on the future without sacrificing current earnings quality.

Based on disclosed information, Amazon's AI investments are very aggressive. In its Q4 earnings report in February, the company stated that 2026 CapEx is expected to be around $200 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure; CEO Andy Jassy later disclosed in his shareholder letter that AWS's AI services annualized revenue run rate has exceeded $15 billion, while AWS's overall annualized run rate is around $142 billion. Furthermore, the annualized revenue run rate for custom chips like Trainium, Graviton, and Nitro has surpassed $20 billion. This shows Amazon is no longer just saying 'we are doing AI too,' but is hoping 'AI becomes the core engine for AWS's next growth phase.'

But the problem is that Amazon cannot only talk about the future. AWS is its growth and profit engine, but retail and fulfillment systems determine whether overall profit margins can be maintained. Last quarter, AWS revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $35.6 billion, with full-year AWS revenue reaching $128.7 billion; the company guided Q1 operating profit at $16.5 billion—$21.5 billion, with the midpoint not being very aggressive. This means that when the market looks at Amazon this time, it's not just about AWS growth itself, but a more practical question: Will high-intensity AI investments squeeze profit margins again? If the answer is no, Amazon will be seen as an example of 'high investment coexisting with high-quality profits.' If the answer becomes ambiguous, market patience will wane.

Amazon's real challenge is not to prove that AWS is still growing, but to prove that it can continue to invest in the future while still making money in the present.

4. Meta: The Market Continues to Buy Not Because It Spends a Lot, But Because It Spends Efficiently

Among the five giants, Meta's logic is the easiest to misjudge. Superficially, Meta, like the others, is frantically increasing CapEx. But the market is still willing to give it a high valuation, not because it also has a bunch of AI product launches, but because it has repeatedly proven that AI can directly improve its core business—advertising. For Meta, AI is not a distant new story; it feels more like an ongoing 'efficiency revolution.'

From its previous earnings report, Meta's advertising business remains the foundation supporting all its AI investments. In Q4 2025, Meta's ad impressions grew 18% year-over-year, average ad price increased 6%, and full-year CapEx reached $72.2 billion. Meanwhile, the company has further raised its 2026 CapEx to $115 billion—$135 billion, with total expense guidance also rising to $162 billion—$169 billion. This means investors now need to observe not how much Meta spent, but whether this spending continues to yield better recommendation capabilities, longer user engagement, more targeted ads, and higher ad monetization efficiency.

Before the earnings, mainstream market expectations were roughly Q1 revenue of $55.46 billion, ad revenue of $53.93 billion, and EPS of $6.73. These numbers are certainly important, but what truly determines market sentiment is the underlying logical chain: AI recommendation optimization → increased user engagement → improved ad efficiency → higher ad revenue → market tolerance for high CapEx. If this chain continues to hold, Meta will remain a prime example of 'AI improving mature business efficiency.' Conversely, if ad growth slows while CapEx pressure mounts, the market will begin scrutinizing its spending pace more critically.

In other words, Meta's earnings this time are not about answering 'Is AI worth investing in?' but about answering: Has AI continued to make this advertising machine more profitable?

5. Apple: The Market Doesn't Expect It to Be the Most Aggressive, Just Wants to Confirm It Hasn't Fallen Behind

If the previous four companies revolve around 'AI investment and commercialization' to some extent, Apple's logic is completely different. The market doesn't expect Apple to tell the most aggressive AI story this earnings season, nor will it measure Apple by 'how much CapEx you spent.' Apple's most critical question is singular: In this AI cycle, does it still firmly hold the most important terminal interface.

This is why Apple's focus will fall on a more nuanced combination: hardware demand, services business, and clarity of AI strategy. In its previous earnings report in January, Apple guided for this quarter's revenue growth of 13%—16% year-over-year. Based on this guidance, revenue is roughly estimated to be in the $107.8 billion—$110.7 billion range. The current mainstream market consensus is approximately $108.9 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.94—$1.95; an S&P Global preview shows the market expects iPhone revenue this quarter to be around $56.5 billion. Meanwhile, Apple's global smartphone shipments grew 5% year-over-year in Q1 2026, capturing a global share of 21%; in the Chinese market, iPhone shipments also grew 20% year-over-year. This indicates that, at least before the earnings, the market has not seen clear signs of a slowdown in Apple's terminal demand.

Therefore, the real focus for Apple this time is not whether it will loudly emphasize AI investments like Microsoft or Google, but whether it can continue to prove that, even without being the most aggressive player in the AI cycle, it still possesses the most important terminal ecosystem, the strongest user base, and the most stable source of high-quality profits. As long as hardware demand is stable, the services business is stable, and its AI stance is clearer than before, the market will not easily exclude Apple from the tech narrative.

Apple represents not the first to monetize AI, but the enduring value of the terminal interface in the AI cycle, still firmly in its hands.

III. Looking at All Five Companies Together, the Market is Essentially Conducting a 'Cross-Validation'

If you look at individual companies, this week is certainly five separate earnings reports. But viewed together, you see the market is actually performing a larger cross-validation. Microsoft checks if AI has formed a closed enterprise payment loop; Google checks if conference narratives can quickly translate into dual delivery of Cloud and Advertising; Amazon checks if high investment can coexist with high-quality profits; Meta checks if AI continuously improves mature business efficiency; Apple checks if the terminal interface and ecosystem position remain solid.

These seem like five different threads, but they all point to the same question: Are the current high valuations of tech leaders based on real delivery, or are they still more based on expectations? If most of the five companies deliver positive answers, the market will be more willing to continue pushing up AI, cloud, advertising platforms, and terminal ecosystem-related sectors. But if divergence is significant, the market will shift from 'broadly raising valuations' back to 'rewarding only the strongest deliverers.'

IV. What Might the Market Reprice After the Earnings?

After earnings week, the market is most likely to reprice not just a single company, but several major narratives.

The first is, of course, the AI infrastructure chain: If the CapEx guidance of the big tech companies remains high, sectors like data centers, networking, optical interconnects, power, and cooling will continue to receive fundamental support.

The second is Cloud and Enterprise AI: As long as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to prove enterprise demand is present, the market will continue to view cloud platforms as the core infrastructure for AI commercialization.

The third is Internet Platforms and Advertising Efficiency: If Meta and Google continue to prove that AI is improving advertising monetization efficiency, the valuation framework for platform-based internet companies will become more stable