比特幣期權反推波動率的含時演化研究
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近日,同伴客數據分析團隊對比特幣期權市場3/12日大跌前後的反推波動率數據進行了含時演化研究。我們的3D圖形清楚的展示了隨著市場價格急速下跌和緩慢回調的全週期期權波動率先極速上升、再緩慢降低的變化過程,對市場波動率的策略性投資具有重要指示意義。
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a closer examination of 6k strike line you can see it better: huge open interest V shape "squeeze&climb back". our theory is forced liquidation of put shorts made the most part, tho you can't exclude the drive of profit-taking especially after significant price recovery cross 6k
此次比特幣價格隨全球主要資產一同大跌,在衍生品市場上也引起了驚心動魄的流動性危機與資本博弈,長遠來看將促進數字貨幣資本市場的進一步健康發展。
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pic is always better to show how simple things work beautifully. check the left side of this graph just 1 day before the flash crash(3/12), +8% spread flipped into -20% ish in a matter of HOURs. Thats like a hefty 30% yearly return by just buy&hedge on a good day(or any "+"day).
期現價差短期恐慌性波動結束
隨著全球疫情和股市急跌後暫時回暖,本輪市場大跌後反彈的不僅僅是比特幣價格本身,期現價差在技術層面上也在觸及“深陰”達-20%多的區間再反复穿越“0”線之後連續一周保持正“陽”。


