$120M+ in Bets Placed on Bitcoin's 2026 Price, 68% Probability of Hitting $70,000
2026-08-12 21:06
Odaily Planet Daily News: Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 around 13:30 ET on August 12, 2026. Across six active markets on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, cumulative betting volume has surpassed $120 million, with traders placing wagers on Bitcoin's future price movements.
Polymarket's largest Bitcoin price market has seen trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by the end of 2026 standing at 68%, and the probability of hitting $60,000 at 79%. The market assigns probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.
Polymarket's market for August 2026 has seen nearly $5 million in trading volume, with the probabilities of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 and falling to $62,500 that month at 70% and 81%, respectively; the probabilities of hitting $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 are 38%, 17%, and 3%, respectively. Polymarket also indicates a 9% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within 2026.
Kalshi data shows a 12% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027, with 3% probabilities for reaching $150,000 and $200,000. Polymarket uses Binance's one-minute BTC/USDT price candlesticks, while Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index, with differing settlement rules. (Bitcoin.com News)
Polymarket's largest Bitcoin price market has seen trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by the end of 2026 standing at 68%, and the probability of hitting $60,000 at 79%. The market assigns probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.
Polymarket's market for August 2026 has seen nearly $5 million in trading volume, with the probabilities of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 and falling to $62,500 that month at 70% and 81%, respectively; the probabilities of hitting $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 are 38%, 17%, and 3%, respectively. Polymarket also indicates a 9% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within 2026.
Kalshi data shows a 12% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027, with 3% probabilities for reaching $150,000 and $200,000. Polymarket uses Binance's one-minute BTC/USDT price candlesticks, while Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index, with differing settlement rules. (Bitcoin.com News)
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