Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, 15%; for July 31, 23%; for August 14, 43%; and for August 31, 54%.

The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation date and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, the market will settle as "Yes." Otherwise, it will settle as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action. This period lasts until 12:00 PM ET on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action within this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be deemed "Yes."

A so-called "qualifying military action" refers to an airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated directly by the US against Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones as well as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and other surface-to-surface missiles.

Qualifying military actions also include munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, cannons, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g., multiple launch rocket systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close air support drone strikes, and anti-tank missile attacks; as well as any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet resulted in action.

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